Lancet study estimates Gaza death toll 40% higher than recorded

Lancet study estimates Gaza death toll 40% higher than recorded
Belal Kullab holds his son, Adnan, who was killed in an Israeli strike. (Reuters)
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Updated 10 January 2025
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Lancet study estimates Gaza death toll 40% higher than recorded

Lancet study estimates Gaza death toll 40% higher than recorded
  • The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military offensive
  • The study’s best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths

PARIS: Research published in The Lancet medical journal on Friday estimates that the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40 percent higher than recorded by the Palestinian territory’s health ministry.

The number of dead in Gaza has become a matter of bitter debate since Israel launched its military campaign against Hamas in response to the Palestinian militant group’s unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack.

Up to June 30 last year, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza reported a death toll of 37,877 in the war.

However the new peer-reviewed study used data from the ministry, an online survey and social media obituaries to estimate that there were between 55,298 and 78,525 deaths from traumatic injuries in Gaza by that time.

The study’s best death toll estimate was 64,260, which would mean the health ministry had under-reported the number of deaths to that point by 41 percent.

That toll represented 2.9 percent of Gaza’s pre-war population, “or approximately one in 35 inhabitants,” the study said.

The UK-led group of researchers estimated that 59 percent of the deaths were women, children and the elderly.

The toll was only for deaths from traumatic injuries, so did not include deaths from a lack of health care or food, or the thousands of missing believed to be buried under rubble.

AFP is unable to independently verify the death toll.

On Thursday, Gaza’s health ministry said that 46,006 people had died over the full 15 months of war.

In Israel, the 2023 attack by Hamas resulted in the deaths of 1,208 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Israel has repeatedly questioned the credibility of the Gaza health ministry’s figures, but the United Nations have said they are reliable.

The researchers used a statistical method called “capture-recapture” that has previously been used to estimate the death toll in conflicts around the world.

The analysis used data from three different lists, the first provided by the Gaza health ministry of the bodies identified in hospitals or morgues.

The second list was from an online survey launched by the health ministry in which Palestinians reported the deaths of relatives.

The third was sourced from obituaries posted on social media platforms such as X, Instagram, Facebook and WhatsApp, when the identity of the deceased could be verified.

“We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital,” lead study author Zeina Jamaluddine, an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said.

The researchers scoured the lists, searching for duplicates.

“Then we looked at the overlaps between the three lists, and based on the overlaps, you can come up with a total estimation of the population that was killed,” Jamaluddine said.

Patrick Ball, a statistician at the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group not involved in the research, has used capture-recapture methods to estimate death tolls for conflicts in Guatemala, Kosovo, Peru and Colombia.

Ball said the well-tested technique has been used for centuries and that the researchers had reached “a good estimate” for Gaza.

Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain’s Open University, said there was “inevitably a lot of uncertainty” when making estimates from incomplete data.

But he said it was “admirable” that the researchers had used three other statistical analysis approaches to check their estimates.

“Overall, I find these estimates reasonably compelling, he added.

The researchers cautioned that the hospital lists do not always provide the cause of death, so it was possible that people with non-traumatic health problems — such as a heart attack — could have been included, potentially leading to an overestimate.

However there were other ways that the war’s toll could still be underestimated.

The study did not include missing people. The UN humanitarian agency OCHA has said that around 10,000 missing Gazans are thought to be buried under rubble.

There are also indirect ways that war can claim lives, such as a lack of health care, food, water, sanitation or the spread of disease. All have stricken Gaza since October 2023.

In a contentious, non-peer-reviewed letter published in The Lancet in July, another group of researchers used the rate of indirect deaths seen in other conflicts to suggest that 186,000 deaths could eventually be attributed to the Gaza war.

The new study suggested that this projection “might be inappropriate due to obvious differences in the pre-war burden of disease” in Gaza compared to conflicts in countries such as Burundi and East Timor.

Jamaluddine said she expected that “criticism is going to come from different sides” about the new research.

She spoke out against the “obsession” of arguing about death tolls, emphasizing that “we already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”


124 journalists killed, most by Israel, in deadliest year for reporters

124 journalists killed, most by Israel, in deadliest year for reporters
Updated 35 sec ago
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124 journalists killed, most by Israel, in deadliest year for reporters

124 journalists killed, most by Israel, in deadliest year for reporters
  • The uptick in killings marks a 22 percent increase over 2023
  • Journalists murdered across 18 different countries, including Palestine's Gaza, Sudan and Pakistan

NEW YORK: Last year was the deadliest for journalists in recent history, with at least 124 reporters killed — and Israel responsible for nearly 70 percent of that total, the Committee to Protect Journalists reported Wednesday.
The uptick in killings, which marks a 22 percent increase over 2023, reflects “surging levels of international conflict, political unrest and criminality worldwide,” the CPJ said.
It was the deadliest year for reporters and media workers since CPJ began keeping records more than three decades ago, with journalists murdered across 18 different countries, it said.
A total of 85 journalists died in the Israeli-Hamas war, “all at the hands of the Israeli military,” the CPJ said, adding that 82 of them were Palestinians.
Sudan and Pakistan recorded the second highest number of journalists and media workers killed, with six each.
In Mexico, which has a reputation as one of the most dangerous countries for reporters, five were killed, with CPJ reporting it had found “persistent flaws” in Mexico’s mechanisms for protecting journalists.
And in Haiti, where two reporters were murdered, widespread violence and political instability have sown so much chaos that “gangs now openly claim responsibility for journalist killings,” the report said.
Other deaths took place in countries such as Myanmar, Mozambique, India and Iraq.
“Today is the most dangerous time to be a journalist in CPJ’s history,” said the group’s CEO Jodie Ginsberg.
“The war in Gaza is unprecedented in its impact on journalists and demonstrates a major deterioration in global norms on protecting journalists,” she said.
CPJ, which has kept records on journalist killings since 1992, said that 24 of the reporters were deliberately killed because of their work in 2024.
Freelancers, the report said, were among the most vulnerable because of their lack of resources, and accounted for 43 of the killings in 2024.
The year 2025 is not looking more promising, with six journalists already killed in the first weeks of the year, CPJ said.


UAE’s president receives phone call from US secretary of state

UAE’s president receives phone call from US secretary of state
Updated 45 min 2 sec ago
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UAE’s president receives phone call from US secretary of state

UAE’s president receives phone call from US secretary of state
  • Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan tells Marco Rubio that 2-state solution is key for peace in Middle East

LONDON:  Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, the president of the UAE, received a phone call from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Wednesday.

The UAE’s president told Rubio that a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was the key to peace in the Middle East.

Sheikh Mohamed emphasized the need for a just and lasting peace in the region, ensuring security and stability for everyone, the Emirates News Agency reported.

The parties discussed ways to strengthen cooperation across various fields to serve the countries’ strategic relationship.


Egypt projects 4% growth in 2025 amid strong economic reforms

Egypt projects 4% growth in 2025 amid strong economic reforms
Updated 12 February 2025
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Egypt projects 4% growth in 2025 amid strong economic reforms

Egypt projects 4% growth in 2025 amid strong economic reforms
  • Results of fiscal discipline, says economy minister Rania Al-Mashat
  • Increased capital inflows, foreign direct investment being recorded

DUBAI: Egypt is likely to record 4 percent growth at the end of 2025, the nation’s Planning and Economic Development Minister Rania Al-Mashat said at the World Governments Summit on Wednesday.

In a session titled “The Regional Economic Outlook of 2025,” Al-Mashat, presented an optimistic view of Egypt’s trajectory amid global challenges.

Panelists during the session addressed disruptions Egypt has faced, notably the 70 percent decline in Suez Canal revenues.

In addition, they highlighted geopolitical tensions stemming from President Donald Trump’s recent threats to displace Palestinians to Egypt and Jordan.

Despite these challenges, Al-Mashat emphasized Egypt’s resilience and strategic economic measures.

“At the outset, macroeconomic stability is a necessary condition for growth and private sector engagement,” she said.

She detailed Egypt’s home-grown program with the International Monetary Fund since March 2024, focusing on fiscal consolidation, reducing domestic debt, stringent public investment discipline, and tighter monetary policy to control inflation.

These measures have restored macroeconomic stability, leading to increased capital inflows and foreign direct investment.

Al-Mashat reported 3.2 percent growth in the first quarter of the 2024/2025 fiscal year, with notable performance in the manufacturing sector, signifying stronger integration with global value chains.

However, she stressed that macroeconomic stability alone was insufficient without structural reforms aimed at increasing competitiveness, private sector involvement, and promoting the green transition.

Egypt has attracted nearly $4 billion in renewable energy investments over the past year, positioning itself as a regional energy hub.

“Agility and resilience are key,” she noted, projecting a 4 percent growth rate by year-end, despite global headwinds such as inflationary pressures and monetary policy shifts.

Al-Mashat concluded by emphasizing Egypt’s proactive stance in financing for development, including domestic resource mobilization, debt swaps, and concessional finance for the green transition, all vital for Egypt’s economic future.


‘We are gearing towards becoming a multiplanetary species,’ says UAE space director

‘We are gearing towards becoming a multiplanetary species,’ says UAE space director
Updated 12 February 2025
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‘We are gearing towards becoming a multiplanetary species,’ says UAE space director

‘We are gearing towards becoming a multiplanetary species,’ says UAE space director

DUBAI: All the UAE’s space projects are gearing toward humanity becoming a multiplanetary species, Salem Al-Marri, director-general of the Mohammed bin Rashid Space Center, told the World Governments Summit on Wednesday.

Speaking to Arab News, Al-Marri discussed the UAE’s partnership with the Saudi space mission. 

“Having our (Saudi Arabia and the UAE) astronauts in space at the same time is the first time we had that many Arabs in space at one time,” he said.

Al-Marri said he hoped to have the two countries work together more extensively and share resources to further develop the Arab space industry.

“We’d love to have our astronauts visit Saudi along with the Saudi astronauts, Rayyanah Barnawi and Ali Al-Qarni, have some joint outreach activities and really take it from there. I think also from the research perspective, the data, the outreach, we are now working on different projects that we will announce soon,” he added.

But Al-Marri jokingly revealed that he, personally, was not ready to relocate to Mars, even if the opportunity were to come up tomorrow.

“Not in my lifetime, no. If there’s a return ticket then yes, if it’s a visit for a couple of years and coming back, I would do that. But I think within the next decade we would see some sort of human presence on Mars for a quick type of mission,” he said.

“The global exploration roadmap is moving towards trying to get a permanent presence on the moon and around the moon, and then using that to go to Mars,” he said. 

In a panel discussion with Salem Butti Al-Qubaisi, director-general of the UAE Space Agency, the directors discussed UAE’s space missions and progress since the UAE space mission to Mars was announced in 2014.

“We see a big benefit of having these astronauts sent into space, performing hundreds of experiments, which benefit us here on the ground,” Al-Marri said.

When asked if the UAE’s scarcity of water in any way limited the space mission, both directors said it served as motivation for the project to go further.

“One of the main objectives of the space mission is to help understand water. We can see if there are other sources of water available. If we are planning to go deeper into space we must ensure that there are adequate resources out there,” Al-Qubaisi said.

Al-Marri said MBRSC’s goal and motivation was to see an Emirati on the moon in the next 10 years.

The UAE Astronaut Program was launched in 2017 by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al-Maktoum, the vice president and prime minister of the UAE, and Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, who was deputy supreme commander of the UAE Armed Forces at the time and is now the UAE president.

Sultan Al-Neyadi was the first Emarati and Arab astronaut to undertake a long-term space mission and the first to complete a spacewalk.

Al-Neyadi, together with NASA astronauts Stephen Bowen and Woody Hoburg and Roscosmos cosmonaut Andrey Fedyaev, were part of NASA’s SpaceX Crew-6 that lifted off on March 2, 2023 from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida.

The crew conducted more than 200 science experiments and technology demonstrations during their stay at the space station and returned to earth on Sept. 4, 2023.

 


Hamas says group’s delegation in Cairo for talks on Gaza ceasefire

Hamas says group’s delegation in Cairo for talks on Gaza ceasefire
Updated 30 min 39 sec ago
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Hamas says group’s delegation in Cairo for talks on Gaza ceasefire

Hamas says group’s delegation in Cairo for talks on Gaza ceasefire
  • “A delegation headed by Khalil Al-Hayya, head of the Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip, arrived in Cairo and began meetings with Egyptian officials,” group said

GAZA: A Hamas delegation was in Cairo on Wednesday for Gaza truce talks, the group said, rejecting “American and Israeli threats” and demanding that Israel comply with the ceasefire deal.
The truce which came into effect last month largely halted more than 15 months of war, but has come under increasing strain in recent days, prompting a new push by mediators Qatar and Egypt to salvage it.
“A delegation headed by Khalil Al-Hayya, head of the Hamas movement in the Gaza Strip, arrived in Cairo and began meetings with Egyptian officials,” the Palestinian group said in a statement.
It added that the delegation, led by Hamas’s chief negotiator, was monitoring “the implementation of the ceasefire agreement.”
A senior Hamas official told AFP the delegation “will discuss ways to end the current crisis and ensure the (Israeli) occupation’s commitment to implementing the agreement.”
On Tuesday Israel warned that it could resume fighting if hostages are not released by Saturday, echoing a threat by US President Donald Trump who said “hell” would break out if Hamas failed to release “all” Israeli hostages by that day.
A sixth hostage-prisoner exchange under the truce deal was scheduled for Saturday, but earlier this week Hamas had announced it was postponing the upcoming release, citing Israel’s failure to allow the entry of key humanitarian aid into Gaza.
A diplomat familiar with the talks said that mediators were engaged with both Israel and Hamas to resolve the dispute and ensure the implementation of the long elusive agreement.
“Mediators are engaging with both Israel and Hamas to try to solve the current issues and ensure both parties of the conflict adhere to the ceasefire and hostage release agreement in place,” the diplomat told AFP on condition of anonymity.
Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem said the group demanded that Israel “adhere to the agreed humanitarian protocol.”
“The Israeli occupation is evading the implementation of several provisions of the ceasefire agreement,” Qassem said in a separate statement.
“Our position is clear, and we will not accept the language of American and Israeli threats. Israel must commit to implementing the terms of the ceasefire agreement” to secure the release of its hostages, he said.
The spokesman added that talks with mediators were ongoing to ensure the agreement’s implementation.
“We have received assurances from mediators that efforts are being made to compel the occupation to uphold the ceasefire terms in Gaza,” said Qassem.
A Palestinian source familiar with the issue earlier told AFP that mediators Egypt and Qatar were “working intensively” to resolve the crisis surround the ceasefire deal.