KABUL, 8 December 2004 — The first act of America’s war on terrorism in 2001 was a blockbuster victory. As the twin towers still smoldered, US bombers and Afghan rebels drove the Taleban from power. Afghans emerged from the rubble of to hear enthusiastic pledges of a phoenix-like resurrection for their wrecked country. Children would go to school, parents would have jobs, peace would prevail.
But this second act, now drawing to a close three years later, has had no Hollywood ending. Warlords control entire provinces, bankrolled by a drugs boom that has spread like a rash. Police, army and government institutions are being built, but too slowly. Insecurity is rife; so is poverty. The Taleban leader Mulla Omar has not been caught; neither has Osama Bin Laden.
Yet most Afghans say life is demonstrably better — which says more about their wretched living conditions before 2001 than the success of reconstruction since. Still, international aid has accelerated, millions of refugees have returned home, and the proud success of the October election sent a clear signal to the gunmen that Afghans want democracy.
As one analyst said, Afghans did not vote for Hamid Karzai, they voted for change. His task from today is to deliver a brighter third act.
Security: The peaceful presidential election promised an end to the ragged Taleban insurgency. Troops were demoralized and their leaders divided by the failure to scuttle the poll, said US generals who offered them an amnesty. But a core of hard-line fighters are still roaming the lawless south, mounting hit-and-run attacks on US troops. Even scattered and hunted, they remain a tenacious and dangerous enemy and continue to stall reconstruction.
The warlords pose a more insidious problem. “Local leaders” backed by small personal armies are involved in drug-running, extortion and thievery. Yet the central government and the US military still relies on them for security. Democracy is unattractive to the warlords, although President Karzai has brought some to heel, notably Ismail Khan. About 26,000 of an estimated 60,000 militant fighters have disarmed.
Women: Kabul and a handful of others cities have seen slow widening of opportunities — girls’ education rates have crept upwards; women are taking new jobs, and the younger generation is starting to reject the burqa. Impressively, women accounted for 50% of voters in some northern cities during the Oct. 9 election. But in many rural areas, little has changed. Here too the election was a good yardstick of progress. In the arch-conservative Uruzgan province just 2% of voters were women.
Drugs: The rocketing drugs trade is a critical challenge for the incoming Karzai government. Having plummeted under the Taleban, poppy production has risen to dizzy new heights that threaten the entire reconstruction project. The export value of the opium will reach $2.8 billion this year, or 60% of GDP, according to the UN. Once confined to a handful of areas, opium is now cultivated in most provinces. The boom has spawned a new class of Colombian-style drug overlords. Some have powerful allies in the police, judiciary and government.
Health and employment: Afghanistan has some of the world’s worst health indicators. Dire infant mortality, maternal mortality and life expectancy rates mean Afghans are more likely to get sick and die young than anyone else. Hospitals lack even the most basic surgical equipment; patients have to bring their own drugs or pay to get treated; there is a chronic shortage of skilled doctors and nurses. However, international reconstruction has had successes in other areas of social policy — almost 5 million children are enrolled in school, the largest number in the history of the country.
