Analysis: Could Israeli strikes on Iran revive specter of $100 oil?

A drone view of a pump jack and drilling rig south of Midland, Texas, US, June 11, 2025. (Reuters)
A drone view of a pump jack and drilling rig south of Midland, Texas, US, June 11, 2025. (Reuters)
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Updated 17 June 2025
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Analysis: Could Israeli strikes on Iran revive specter of $100 oil?

A drone view of a pump jack and drilling rig south of Midland, Texas, US, June 11, 2025. (Reuters)
  • Crude oil caught between escalation pressures and supply shortage scenarios as prices surge

LONDON: Energy and oil market analysts, speaking to Independent Arabia, unanimously described the surprise Israeli military strikes on Iranian targets as creating an “instantaneous market shock.”

Amid escalating geopolitical tensions, the latest military confrontations between Israel and Iran are propelling crude oil prices into dramatic territory, rekindling fears of energy crises that have historically destabilized global markets.

This unprecedented escalation sparks immediate questions about energy market disruptions, petroleum price movements, and short-term risk premium adjustments — including the possibility of crude breaching the $100 per barrel threshold.

Conversely, with reports confirming that Iranian oil refining and storage facilities remained undamaged, this factor may help cushion the shock to global petroleum markets.

Crisis background and market impact

These significant developments emerge precisely as markets were starting to digest the International Energy Agency’s “Global Energy Review 2025,” which forecast a deceleration in oil demand growth stemming from the worldwide shift toward renewable energy and electric vehicle adoption.

However, Israeli attacks on Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility and additional military targets have completely reversed these projections, aggressively thrusting supply disruption concerns and price escalation back into the spotlight.

Analysts portrayed the strike as “converting the Iranian standoff from a political matter into actual combat,” propelling oil prices higher by 7 percent to 13 percent in the steepest single-session increase since March 2022. Subsequently, Brent crude exceeded $78 per barrel as West Texas Intermediate advanced past $73.

International warnings and notable statements

These incidents align with global warnings and prominent declarations from US President Donald Trump, who acknowledged that the American leadership possessed advance intelligence about Israeli attacks on Iran, while stressing Washington’s detachment from the operations.

Trump cautioned Tehran about its nuclear ambitions, declaring: “We will not allow Iran to possess nuclear weapons... but we do not want a new war in the Middle East.”

Such pronouncements intensify the complexity of circumstances, revealing that Washington maintains vigilant oversight, while seeking to circumvent direct participation in hostilities that could trigger catastrophic repercussions for the world economy.

Throughout history, the Iranian matter has remained among the most convoluted subjects in global politics, where atomic weapon concerns merge with financial and geopolitical calculations.

Momentary shock or open conflict?

Energy and oil market analysts, speaking to Independent Arabia, unanimously described the surprise Israeli military strikes on Iranian targets as creating an “instantaneous market shock,” heightening concerns that current tensions might spiral into full-scale warfare in one of the globe’s most critical oil-producing areas.

Industry experts verified that crude price movements in the upcoming phase will hinge on three primary elements: Tehran’s likely retaliation strategy, major powers’ diplomatic stances, and whether military activities persist in the short and intermediate timeframes.

Market analysts pointed out that dramatic price spikes mainly represent “uncertainty premiums” tied to geopolitical instability, which could stay heightened while hostilities continue. This premium constitutes the additional cost petroleum purchasers bear to hedge against possible supply interruptions.

They observed that escalating geopolitical threats result in increased uncertainty premiums, pushing prices higher despite the absence of real supply constraints.

Although undamaged Iranian oil processing and storage infrastructure serves as a significant stabilizing element, analysts contend that direct strikes on Iranian petroleum facilities would have triggered instant supply cuts, accelerating prices to substantially higher territory.

They stressed that present price rises reflect anticipated future threats rather than genuine supply deficits thus far, offering the market some operational room. Put differently, the market currently confronts the prospect of oil supply interruptions rather than actual losses, constraining the scale of price increases that would have occurred had petroleum installations been specifically attacked.

Reciprocal attacks

Petroleum sector expert Kamel Al-Harami considers it challenging to forecast precise oil price targets amid present conditions, citing the potential for Middle Eastern warfare or Iranian supply interruptions affecting global markets in Asia, particularly China, India, and Japan.

Al-Harami observed that although OPEC maintains spare capacity surpassing 5 million barrels per day, crude prices jumped $7 within a 24-hour period, hitting $73 per barrel. He characterized this surge as merely the initial phase of additional gains, speculating whether values might climb to $80 or potentially $90 per barrel.

Al-Harami noted that any pricing above $65 per barrel would favor American shale operations and stimulate enhanced sector investment. He underscored that greater increases would arise from expanding warfare consequences and mutual attacks between Israel and Iran, potentially encompassing other Gulf Arab countries, thus “commencing the actual calamity.”

Strong blow to sentiment

IG market specialist Tony Sycamore described the escalation as “a major hit to market confidence” throughout financial sectors generally, not limited to energy trading, forecasting significant capital flight from risk investments by week’s close. He observed that market participants are watching for “potential Iranian reprisals,” which might shape trading patterns in upcoming sessions.

Supply concerns
Strategic analyst at Pepperstone Ahmed Aseeri explained that current price increases reflect a combination of immediate supply concerns and expectations of gradually escalating tensions, unlike previous Iran-Israel tension rounds that usually ended quickly or through international containment pressures.

Contagion spread

Phillip Nova Singapore market analyst Priyanka Sachdeva verified that Iran’s preparation for military reprisals amplifies dangers, extending beyond supply interruptions to include prospects of geopolitical spillover affecting neighboring oil-producing nations, possibly driving crude prices back to heights not witnessed in 10 years.

Production disruption

Lipow Oil Associates President Andy Lipow outlined that crude prices might surpass $100 per barrel should any Gulf petroleum production installations face disruption, although he emphasized the baseline projection presumes leading nations will work to limit escalation and avoid further deterioration.

Major doubts

XM Australia’s CEO Peter McGuire depicted “Israeli-Iranian conflicts” as producing “considerable anxiety” spurring market fluctuations, explaining that oil values react predominantly to imminent supply vulnerabilities compared with other elements.

Price projections

Natasha Kaneva, JPMorgan’s global commodities strategy chief, projected possible price crests at $120, though she balanced this by saying that markets could tumble to $40 if additional supplies materialize and demand weakens. Geopolitics maintains its dominance.

Broader conflict and worst scenario

JPMorgan detailed in a latest research analysis that the gravest outcome entails possible hostilities spreading to encompass oil supply interruptions from surrounding states, including endangering maritime transit via the Strait of Hormuz.

JPMorgan specified that this hard-line possibility holds approximately 7 percent likelihood, implying prices might achieve “explosive” growth propelled by international market alarm if the area deteriorates into extensive conflict.

Despite such warnings, the bank retained fundamental projections for Brent petroleum in the 60s per barrel territory for the remainder of 2025, expecting area and worldwide powers to suppress escalation, followed by approximately $60 in 2026.

Future scenarios

As regional geopolitical strain escalates, market observers concentrate on potential developments that might determine global crude price directions. If leading powers including the US and EU intervene to ease hostilities and forestall military reprisals between Iran and Israel, prices would likely diminish progressively toward pre-tension benchmarks. This pathway hinges on diplomatic effectiveness and immediate crisis management, which JPMorgan endorses in its fundamental outlook.

Alternatively, if Iran strikes back forcefully or hostilities broaden to encompass Iranian oil installations or Strait of Hormuz transit, petroleum prices could climb beyond $100-120 per barrel within global energy market pandemonium. This scenario might worsen should obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz happen, which JPMorgan characterized as the direst possibility, cited by Andy Lipow and Priyanka Sachdeva as realistic.

Three key factors to monitor

Against this backdrop of tensions, markets demonstrate limited potential for immediate calm, particularly as the Iranian challenge represents one of the most convoluted international political crises spanning over two decades. While investors endeavor to absorb ongoing developments, the short-range objective involves “stability” over inflated values. Hence, three principal indicators should be watched to determine pricing patterns:

First, Iran’s response style: Will it remain token or threaten supply continuity? Analysts regard Tehran’s reaction approach as the decisive factor influencing market trends in coming days.

Second, global powers’ effectiveness: Will they manage to shield the area from regional conflict? International mediation efforts need to serve crucial roles in limiting escalation and preventing progression toward wider confrontation.

Third, futures trading patterns: Do they demonstrate “sustained crisis” or “momentary surge” characteristics? Oil derivative contracts will deliver clear indications of market projections for extended timeframes. If pricing sustains long-term increases, this signals markets foresee continuing instability; if levels stabilize, this reflects perception of current turbulence as fleeting.

Broadly speaking, geopolitical dynamics will maintain control over petroleum markets in the near future, but if balance fails, effects will reach beyond energy to global price indices and economic development, with possible return to $100 pricing, potentially shadowing the entire world economy.


Saudi Arabia raises $1.34bn through July sukuk issuance

Saudi Arabia raises $1.34bn through July sukuk issuance
Updated 15 July 2025
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Saudi Arabia raises $1.34bn through July sukuk issuance

Saudi Arabia raises $1.34bn through July sukuk issuance

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s National Debt Management Center raised SR5.02 billion ($1.34 billion) through its riyal-denominated sukuk issuance for July, marking a sharp 113.6 percent increase compared to the previous month.

In June, the Kingdom issued sukuk worth SR2.35 billion, while May and April saw issuances of SR4.08 billion and SR3.71 billion, respectively.

Sukuk are Shariah-compliant financial instruments that offer investors partial ownership in an issuer’s underlying assets, making them a popular alternative to conventional bonds.

According to NDMC, the July issuance was divided into four tranches. The first tranche, valued at SR776 million, will mature in 2029. The second, worth SR1.34 billion, is set to mature in 2032, followed by a third tranche of SR823 million due in 2036. The largest tranche, totaling SR2.08 billion, will mature in 2039.

Saudi Arabia’s debt market has witnessed robust growth in recent years, attracting strong investor interest in fixed-income instruments amid a global environment of rising interest rates.

In April, Kuwait Financial Center, also known as Markaz, reported that Saudi Arabia led the Gulf Cooperation Council in primary debt issuances during the first quarter of the year. The Kingdom raised $31.01 billion from 41 offerings, accounting for over 60 percent of total issuances across the region.

Credit rating agency S&P Global noted in April that Saudi Arabia’s expanding non-oil sector and steady sukuk issuance volumes are likely to support the growth of the global Islamic finance industry.

The agency forecasts global sukuk issuance to reach between $190 billion and $200 billion in 2025, with foreign currency-denominated offerings contributing up to $80 billion, assuming market conditions remain stable.

Echoing that outlook, a report by Kamco Invest published in December said Saudi Arabia is expected to account for the largest share of bond maturities in the GCC between 2025 and 2029, with $168 billion set to mature during the period.

Earlier this month, S&P Global reiterated its positive view, stating that the global sukuk market is on track to maintain its momentum in 2025, with foreign currency-denominated issuances projected to reach between $70 billion and $80 billion.


Saudi Arabia tops MENA VC rankings with $860m in H1: MAGNiTT 

Saudi Arabia tops MENA VC rankings with $860m in H1: MAGNiTT 
Updated 15 July 2025
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Saudi Arabia tops MENA VC rankings with $860m in H1: MAGNiTT 

Saudi Arabia tops MENA VC rankings with $860m in H1: MAGNiTT 

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia led venture capital activity in the Middle East and North Africa in early 2025, raising $860 million — a 116 percent annual jump — backed by sovereign support and foreign interest. 

In its latest report, regional venture platform MAGNiTT revealed that the Kingdom witnessed 114 deals in the first half of the year, marking a significant 31 percent rise compared to the same period in 2024. 

This comes on the back of a strong 2024 performance, when Saudi Arabia retained its position as the most funded MENA country for VC for the second consecutive year. Startups raised $750 million, with a 34 percent increase in deal funding rounds below $100 million – dubbed MEGA deals – reflecting growing early- and mid-stage capital formation, according to a report released earlier this year by MAGNiTT and SVC. 

In its latest report for the first half, MAGNiTT stated: “This growth was supported by continued sovereign capital activity, event-driven momentum from LEAP, and early-stage programs backed by new funds and accelerators.” 

Saudi Arabia ranked second among emerging venture markets in total VC funding, trailing only Singapore, which raised $1.28 billion across 120 deals in the first half. 

However, Singapore’s funding declined 37 percent year on year, while the number of deals dropped 31 percent. 

“The drop (in Singapore) signals a continued cooldown in late-stage deployment and foreign investor activity amid macro headwinds,” the report stated. 

Among emerging markets, Saudi Arabia was followed by the UAE, which raised $447 million in funding in the first six months of the year, a rise of 84 percent year on year. 

The UAE also matched Saudi Arabia in deal count, recording 114 deals, up 10 percent compared to the same period last year. This was driven by increased international participation, which reached its highest level in the Emirates since the first half of 2020. 

Elsewhere, Turkiye raised $226 million, followed by Vietnam at $216 million, Egypt at $185 million, and South Africa at $183 million. Nigeria raised $158 million, while Indonesia and Kenya secured $102 million and $71 million, respectively. 

The report further noted that fintech was the leading sector across all three EVM regions in the first half, accounting for 45 percent of VC funding in Southeast Asia, 38 percent in the Middle East, and 45 percent in Africa. 

“The bulk of this activity was concentrated in payment solutions and lending platforms, which emerged as the dominant fintech subsectors,” added the report. 

Meanwhile, mergers and acquisitions activity across emerging venture markets saw 55 transactions in the first half, marking a 31 percent increase compared to the same period last year. 


Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in red at 11,095

Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in red at 11,095
Updated 15 July 2025
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Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in red at 11,095

Closing Bell: Saudi main index closes in red at 11,095

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul All Share Index slipped on Tuesday, as it shed 118.18 points, or 1.05 percent, to close at 11,095.41. 

The total trading turnover of the benchmark index was SR4.52 billion ($1.21 billion), with 46 of the listed stocks advancing and 204 declining. 

The Kingdom’s parallel market Nomu also shed 55.43 points to 27,301.46.

The MSCI Tadawul Index declined by 1.09 percent to close at 1,421.31. 

The best-performing stock on the main market was SHL Finance Co. The firm’s share price increased by 5.21 percent to SR22.62. 

The share price of SICO Saudi REIT Fund rose by 5.1 percent to SR4.33. 

Tourism Enterprise Co. also saw its stock price climb by 3.26 percent to SR0.95. 

Conversely, the share price of Alistithmar AREIC Diversified REIT Fund declined by 4.03 percent to SR9.05. 

On the announcements front, Saudi Co. for Hardware, also known as SACO, said that it signed an agreement valued at SR140.43 million to sell its warehouse in Al-Mashael district in Riyadh. 

In a Tadawul statement, SACO said that the proceeds from the sale will be used to repay existing bank loans and help support its future expansion plans.

The firm further said that the 42,937-sq.-meter warehouse was sold to 6th Iradat Al Imdad Co., a limited liability company. 

The firm added that there are no related parties involved in the deal. 

The share price of SACO dropped by 1.02 percent to SR29.14. 

The shareholders of Saudi Lime Industries Co. approved a recommendation to increase its capital by 5 percent through a one-for-20 bonus share distribution, by capitalizing SR11 million from the firm’s retained earnings account.

The stock price of Saudi Lime Industries Co., listed on the parallel market, advanced by 4.77 percent to SR12.97. 


Saudi Data and Artificial Intelligence Authority, Shareek sign deal to accelerate AI, cloud innovation

Saudi Data and Artificial Intelligence Authority, Shareek sign deal to accelerate AI, cloud innovation
Updated 15 July 2025
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Saudi Data and Artificial Intelligence Authority, Shareek sign deal to accelerate AI, cloud innovation

Saudi Data and Artificial Intelligence Authority, Shareek sign deal to accelerate AI, cloud innovation

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s private sector is set to gain a boost in AI-driven innovation and data capabilities through a new agreement aimed at accelerating digital transformation across key industries. 

The new deal, signed between the Saudi Data and Artificial Intelligence Authority and the Private Sector Partnership Reinforcement Program, known as Shareek, aims to conduct comprehensive market studies and coordinate with relevant authorities, according to an official statement. 

The memorandum of understanding also includes a mandate to develop AI-aligned business models and provide technical consultation services to private sector entities participating in the Shareek program. 

This comes as the Gulf’s largest economy positions itself as a global AI hub under its Vision 2030 strategy, which targets $135.2 billion in economic value from the technology by the end of the decade. 

The same roadmap aims to raise the private sector’s contribution to gross domestic product to 65 percent by 2030, signaling a shift toward tech-led diversification away from oil dependency. 

In a post on X, SDAIA stated that the MoU also seeks to “develop investment opportunities in cooperation with relevant authorities” and to “develop business models for both parties, in accordance with established procedures.” 

It added that the agreement will also focus on “identifying and prioritizing investment opportunities and providing specialized technical consultations,” as well as “sharing investment opportunities with the sector and relevant authorities to join the Private Sector Partnership Reinforcement Program – Shareek.”

Launched in 2021, Shareek is a flagship public-private partnership program aiming to unlock SR5 trillion ($1.33 trillion) in investments by 2030. It supports large Saudi companies in accelerating growth and driving economic development. Its collaboration with SDAIA highlights its role in advancing large-scale digital transformation.

The development comes as the Kingdom expands its global tech alliances, with SDAIA signing an MoU with Advanced Micro Devices, or AMD, on the sidelines of the Saudi-US Investment Forum in Riyadh in May to strengthen the AI ecosystem. 

The agreement aims to develop specialized AI data centers powered by AMD technologies, supporting the Kingdom’s efforts to build a robust digital infrastructure.

These developments come as Saudi Arabia’s global AI standing continues to rise, with the Kingdom ranking third worldwide in the OECD AI Policy Observatory in December, behind only the US and the UK.


Foreign investors buy $4.2bn GCC stocks in Q2, up 50%: Kamco Invest

Foreign investors buy $4.2bn GCC stocks in Q2, up 50%: Kamco Invest
Updated 15 July 2025
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Foreign investors buy $4.2bn GCC stocks in Q2, up 50%: Kamco Invest

Foreign investors buy $4.2bn GCC stocks in Q2, up 50%: Kamco Invest

RIYADH: Foreign investors sharply increased their exposure to Gulf stock markets in the second quarter of 2025, with net inflows surging 50 percent compared to the previous three months to reach $4.2 billion.

According to the latest analysis done by Kamco Invest, a Kuwait-based non-banking firm, this momentum extended the streak of net foreign inflows into Gulf Cooperation Council equities to six consecutive quarters, with total net purchases in the first half of 2025 rising 39.8 percent year on year to $7 billion. 

The surge comes as GCC equity markets continue to attract global capital, buoyed by strong corporate earnings and ongoing economic reforms. In the first quarter alone, 11 initial public offerings raised $1.6 billion — up 33 percent from a year earlier — driven largely by Saudi Arabia, which accounted for 69 percent of total proceeds, according to a PwC Middle East analysis published in May. 

In its GCC Trading Activity Quarterly Report, Kamco said: “Foreign investors, including institutional and retail investors, were net buyers on GCC stock markets during Q2 2025 with net buying at $4.2 billion as compared to $2.8 billion in net buying during Q1 2025.”

Saudi Arabia led the region with $1.4 billion in net foreign buying, a major jump from $252.3 million in the previous quarter, highlighting growing investor confidence in the Kingdom’s market liberalization efforts. 

The increased appetite of foreign buyers in the Saudi exchange underscores the progress of the country’s economic diversification efforts, as the Kingdom continues to strengthen its capital market and reduce its reliance on crude revenues. 

In May, Saudi Arabia’s Capital Market Authority revealed in its annual report that net foreign investments in the Kingdom’s stock market rose to SR218 billion ($58.1 billion) in 2024, marking a 10.1 percent increase compared to the previous year. 

The Kamco report noted that the UAE saw $1.33 billion in net inflows into the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange in the second quarter, while Kuwait saw $696.5 million, Dubai $462 million, and Qatar $333.6 million. 

In contrast, Oman and Bahrain recorded net foreign outflows of $29.6 million and $27.9 million, respectively. 

“The 1H 2025 data of trading activity on GCC exchanges indicated that net buying at the aggregate level, although the trend differed at the country level due to net sales during Q1 2025 for some of the exchanges,” said Kamco Invest. 

In terms of first-half performance, the UAE attracted the highest foreign inflows at $4.6 billion, followed by Saudi Arabia with $1.6 billion and Kuwait at $1.4 billion. 

In a landmark regulatory shift, Saudi Arabia’s Capital Market Authority recently announced that citizens and residents of GCC countries will be allowed to invest directly in Tadawul, the Kingdom’s main stock exchange. 

This move is part of a broader effort to modernize Saudi Arabia’s capital markets and enhance foreign investor participation. It aligns with the Kingdom’s ambitious Vision 2030 strategy, which aims to diversify the economy, boost market liquidity, and strengthen its financial standing in the Gulf region. 

In its latest report, Kamco noted that exchanges in Kuwait, Abu Dhabi, and Qatar witnessed consistent foreign buying throughout the three months of the second quarter. 

In contrast, Saudi Arabia saw net foreign selling in April, followed by net buying in the subsequent two months. 

Oman was the only exchange in the GCC region to record net foreign selling in each of the three months of the quarter. 

“Some of the key factors that affected the flow of foreign money in the region included regional market trends, initial public offerings, geopolitical issues, economic health of the individual countries and crude oil prices,” added Kamco. 

Market performance 

GCC equity markets delivered a mixed performance in the second quarter, with five of the seven regional exchanges posting gains, reinforcing a broadly optimistic investor outlook. 

Aggregate share trading volume across the region reached 94.73 billion shares in the quarter, up 9.1 percent from the first quarter. Qatar led the increase with 12.5 billion shares traded — up 39.4 percent — followed by Dubai with 16.3 billion shares, a 21 percent increase. 

In contrast, trading volumes in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain declined by 5 percent and 61.5 percent, respectively, during the same period. 

The total value of shares traded in the second quarter reached $151.8 billion, representing a marginal decline of 3.75 percent compared to the first quarter. 

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Bahrain recorded declines in trading value, while the rest of the GCC markets saw gains during the period. 

The analysis revealed that Abu Dhabi posted the largest increase in value traded, reaching $22.5 billion in the second quarter, up from $20.3 billion in the first three months of the year. 

Trading activity on Saudi Arabia’s stock exchange stood at $89 billion in the second quarter, down from $95.7 billion in the previous quarter. 

Top 10 GCC stocks 

The Kamco analysis showed that six Saudi listed stocks ranked among the top 10 most traded GCC equities by trading value in the second quarter of 2025. 

The combined trading value of the top 10 stocks across the region reached $34.7 billion, accounting for 36.6 percent of the total value traded during the quarter. 

Al-Rajhi Bank led the list with $5.8 billion in trading value, followed by energy giant Saudi Aramco at $5.1 billion, International Holdings Co. at $4 billion, ADNOC Gas at $3.4 billion, and stc at $3.1 billion. 

Saudi National Bank saw trading activity of $3 billion, followed by Emaar Properties at $2.9 billion and Alinma Bank at $2.8 billion. 

Kuwait Finance House recorded $2.5 billion in trades, while Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Co., also known as Masar, saw $2.1 billion.