Those who long for the re-emergence of a multipolar world can take heart from trends in Asia. A recent CIA-commissioned intelligence report suggests the rise of China and India is heralding an Asian Century in place of a receding American Century.
Titled “Mapping the Global Future” and with its sights set at the year 2020, the report suggests that “a combination of sustained high economic growth, expanding military capabilities and large populations will be at the root of the expected rapid rise in economic and political power for both countries.”
A report by The United States — Indonesia Society last November discusses China’s new policies toward Southeast Asia referring to these as so “well executed as to be a thing of beauty while the United States has only paid episodic interest in that part of the world.
“With explicit policies in most East and Southeast Asian countries of increasing mutual cooperation and interaction, it is as if a huge convention is underway to which the United States is not invited,” states the report.
On the other hand, a Russia, fretting over its own loss of power, disgruntled over the Iraq war and US third-column influence over the Ukrainian vote, is an honored guest at the new-Asia party.
According to the Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov, Russia and China, both advocates of a multipolar world, will take part in joint military exercises later this year on Chinese territory.
“The Russian side will not bring big numbers of servicemen, but mostly state-of-the-art weapons...and submarines to practice interaction with China in different forms of military maneuvers,” said Ivanov. China has become Russia’s No. 1 customer for military hardware and is poised to order sophisticated Russian-made fighter jets.
However, Russia may soon have a major competitor vying for China’s business. Next week, British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw will fly to Beijing to discuss the lifting of a 15-year EU arms embargo much to the fury of the Bush administration.
Straw has indicated the likelihood of the ban being annulled in June despite Washington’s fears that such would pose a threat to its military and complaints that British Prime Minister Tony Blair has been cowed by French and German pressure. American fears concerning Israel’s supply of weapons to China are rarely aired.
Returning to the CIA report, it speculates that Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries may cement links with India so as to form a geopolitical counterweight to China, even as China strengthens its own ties with New Delhi. Such a scenario could leave America’s best regional buddy Japan out on a limb.
Indeed, an article in The Japan Times dated Jan. 16 indicates Japanese concerns: “The Defense Agency has prepared a plan to defend the southern remote islands off Kyushu and Okinawa from possible invasion amid rising security concerns about China.”
The US is nervous due to a potential Chinese threat to its bases on Japanese soil, but even more so when it comes to Chinese overtures to the subcontinent and the Middle East.
Just last week, China and Pakistan resolved to solidify relations between their respective militaries while mollifying Washington with a joint pledge to fight terrorism.
As for Sino-Indian relations, while these have been historically fraught over border disputes, both giants are concerned about the US military presence in the Central Asian republics, as well as Iraq and the Gulf, undermining their own oil and energy interests. If those two overcame their differences what a powerhouse they would become.
Just imagine two nuclear nations, two economic success stories, with a joint population of 2.3 billion or more than a third of the world’s entire population, ganging up. Last November India and China conducted unprecedented joint naval exercises so this proposition may not be that far fetched.
This is what the neoconservatives have long dreaded and this is one of the reasons why the Bush administration has been so eager to see its military footprint firmly placed around Middle Eastern oil. India imports 70 percent of its oil requirements while China is totally dependent on imports.
With this dependency in mind, China’s oil giant Sinopec signed a $70 billion oil and gas agreement with Iran last October, while China has agreed with Russia for the joint survey of oil and gas deposits along their border regions.
On Saturday, India’s Prime Minister Manmohan Singh stated India needed to catch up with China in securing energy supplies, adding, “China is ahead of us in planning for its energy security. India can no longer be complacent.”
And neither can the US. The days when its metal-clad armies can clunk around the world at will while other nations stay mum may soon be at an end.
India has already shown its independence by refusing foreign aid for its tsunami victims, while Indonesia is visibly nervous at having US troops stationed in its troubled Aceh province.
After rejecting Britain’s offer of sending a regiment of Gurkhas to help with the clear up, Indonesia demanded the exit of all foreign troops before March 26. This demand was diplomatically retracted after US Deputy Minister of Defense Paul Wolfowitz quashed rumors that the US had sights on a base in the region and promised a speedy withdrawal from Aceh.
The bottom line is this. Thanks to the Bush administration’s misadventures in Afghanistan and Iraq; its threats to Syria and Iran; its mistreatment of detainees; its unilateral ripping up of treaties and conventions, and its policy of pre-emptive strikes, not to mention its unconditional propping up of Israel, the US has few genuine friends.
Colin Powell had hoped its gestures toward the tsunami victims might gain it goodwill among Muslims but at this juncture much more is needed. It isn’t only Muslim countries, which are suspicious of America’s long-terms goals and intentions. And it is those often well-founded suspicions, which are fuelling new allegiances between former foes. It’s ironic that the US has created that which it feared most — organized global opposition and competition.
We’ve had the Cold War followed by the War on Terror with, perhaps, another seismic shift on the way. The former paper tigers are set to bare their fangs with Russia and Iran hanging on onto their tails. Who knows! With flashpoints like Taiwan on the horizon, there may come a day when we’ll all be chanting ‘Come back Bush, all is forgiven’... or, then again, maybe not.
— Linda S. Heard is a specialist writer on Middle East affairs. She welcomes feedback.
