The Bush administration expects to focus much of its attention in a second term on promoting a political transformation of the Arab Middle East. But it may also have to spend some time on a parallel problem: Preventing the unraveling of the democratic change the United States successfully nurtured a generation ago.
As Ronald Reagan began his second term 20 years ago, the United States was struggling to foster democracy in Latin America. Amid deep skepticism in Washington, Reagan’s team promoted imperfect elections in Central America while trying to train the feckless army of El Salvador to defeat insurgents. It pushed dictators with whom the United States had once been friendly, such as Chile’s Augusto Pinochet, toward holding democratic elections. In the end, democracy did sweep every country but Cuba. When several challenges to the new order were successfully turned back during the 1990s, it appeared irreversible. Now Latin America’s buried tradition of authoritarian populism is making a comeback, fueled by sluggish economic growth, corruption and weak leadership. In the past few weeks, what had been a slowly deteriorating situation has begun to snowball:
— In Venezuela, President Hugo Chavez has responded to his victory in a controversial recall referendum by aggressively moving to eliminate the independence of the media and judiciary, criminalize opposition, and establish state control over the economy. He is using his country’s surging oil revenue to prop up the once-beleaguered Cuban dictatorship of Fidel Castro, sponsor antidemocratic movements in other Latin countries and buy influence. Last week he literally declared war against privately owned farms, sending troops to occupy one of the country’s largest cattle ranches.
— In Bolivia, the Chavez-funded Movement Toward Socialism has already driven one democratically elected president from office through violent protests.
— Nicaraguan President Enrique Bolanos avoided a de facto coup last week only by striking a deal with former Sandinista ruler Daniel Ortega, who has threatened to use a corruptly assembled alliance to alter the constitution and transfer power from the presidency to the Sandinista-run legislature.
A decade ago, Latin America’s stronger democratic leaders could be counted on to rally against such authoritarian movements with US help, using the vehicle of the Organization of American States. Just three years ago, the OAS adopted a democracy charter that allows for collective action against member states that violate such principles as an independent judiciary.
But even the strong democracies, like Brazil and Chile, have grown weaker: Both have leftist presidents who frequently strike poses against President Bush’s policies but have little stomach for taking on a menace such as Chavez. Even if they were to challenge the Chavistas, the Latin democrats would find few followers in the OAS assembly. Venezuela has bought off a raft of governments with subsidized supplies of oil.
All this puts the Bush administration in a difficult position. If it assertively challenges the antidemocratic leaders, it may find itself alone, shunned by Latin leaders and accused by liberals in Washington of reviving Yanqui imperialism. Working from Castro’s playbook, Chavez already uses Bush as a foil and excuse for persecuting democratic opponents.
But quiet diplomacy doesn’t work either. The Bush team has tried to quietly reach out to Chavez in recent months while urging his neighbors to stand up to him - only to see his reckless “revolution’’ accelerate. Ignoring the trouble in Ecuador and Bolivia hasn’t made it go away. So what can be done? One option is simply to wait for Chavez and his populist imitators to crash and burn, as they have throughout Latin American history, meanwhile seeking to shore up democratic Latin governments. But that could take a long time, especially if oil prices remain high, and a Venezuelan collapse could be costly, given the country’s position as the supplier of 13 percent of US oil.
The alternative is a long, arduous, carefully calibrated program to rally support for democratic freedoms and convince Latin leaders they can’t afford to allow their neighbors to subvert them.
