It is difficult to get an accurate reading of the status of the cease-fire in the occupied territories. Claims that a truce has been reached between Hamas and Islamic Jihad on the one hand and Israel on the other have been made, then swiftly denied and then modified. Israeli Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz’s announcement yesterday to Israeli Radio that the two groups had agreed to suspend attacks against Israel for a month was apparently premature. His statement that Israel was willing to suspend operations against Palestinian activists only if they carried out no more attacks is a rehash of the chicken-or-egg theory: Who ends the violence first — the Palestinians or the Israelis?
What is sure is that Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas has been in intense consultations with activist groups. He is making every attempt to convince them to see the situation as he sees it — that he seeks peace at the negotiating table and that he will not fight his way toward an independent state and other Palestinian rights. His goal and that of groups such as Hamas are the same; the means, however, are not. Nonetheless, Abbas is making headway. Hamas has expressed its readiness to study the situation seriously. And should some form of truce be reached, anti-Israeli groups of lesser stature will fall in line.
If forthcoming, a cease-fire will come after Ariel Sharon’ green light to his troops to use whatever they believe is required to stop attacks; when the wall continues to be built despite an order by the International Court of Justice that it should be torn down; after a long suspension of any form of negotiations, after President Bush dashed hopes of the right of return and allowed Sharon to stay on most of the West Bank; after the killings of Hamas leaders Sheikh Yassin and Abdelaziz Al-Rantissi; after more than four years of the uprising in which 3,660 Palestinians as opposed to 981 Israelis have been killed.
If the cards are stacked so heavily against the Palestinians, what then could possibly motivate their highly popular anti-Israeli groups to agree to a cease-fire? A truce will not, in Hamas’ own words, come cheaply. Any cease-fire must be met by a similar laying down of arms by Israeli troops. Israel must suspend its military operations, including targeted killings, and release prisoners. If this is the price Israel must pay for peace, it surely is worth it.
The Bush administration is taking advantage of a lull in the violence to send the State Department’s ranking Mideast officer, William Burns, to the region to assess the chances for making peace. Burns will find the atmosphere more conducive to peace efforts than it has been in a long time. There have been no attacks on Israel during Abbas’ five days of negotiations with activists. In addition, he has deployed some 2,000 security forces in northern Gaza to stop rocket and mortar attacks on Israeli communities. More forces are expected to be posted in southern Gaza. And now, there is much talk of a possible cease-fire. Israel must reciprocate if any of these measures are to amount to anything.
