JERUSALEM, 26 January 2005 — The last truce held only seven weeks before collapsing amid mutual recriminations but the Palestinian factions and Israel both have a strong interest to ensure the success of any new cease-fire. New Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas has expressed confidence h will soon reach an agreement with the likes of Hamas and Islamic Jihad for them to call a halt to their campaign of attacks which has claimed the lives of more than 900 Israelis over the last four-and-a-half years. The militant groups are already observing an unofficial “cooling down” period and have said they are prepared to make it a more formal arrangement as long as there is reciprocation from Israel.
As prime minister in June 2003, Abbas also managed to persuade the factions to sign up to a so-called hudna (truce). But when a Hamas suicide bomber blew himself and 23 Israelis up on a bus in downtown Jerusalem on Aug. 19, the already shaky truce finally crumbled. However, with municipal and parliamentary elections on the horizon and power up for grabs in its Gaza Strip stronghold after Israel’s withdrawal from the territory later this year, Hamas appears ready to devote its energies to the political rather than military front, at least for the time being. The organization has previously shunned the political process over its opposition to the 1993 Oslo accords which led to the creation of the Palestinian Authority but Ghazi Hamad, a Palestinian analyst with close ties to the Islamists, said that there was now a change of heart.“I think that there is now a belief within Hamas that they shouldn’t allow the Oslo Agreement to be an obstacle to participating in political life.”
While Hamas and Jihad shunned the Jan. 9 presidential election, they are taking part in municipal polls in Gaza later this week and in July elections to the Legislative Council. Hamas spokesman Mushir Al-Masri confirmed that the discussions with Abbas had focused on political participation, including the idea of Hamas joining the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and Palestinian Authority. The change of focus from the military to political front may also be partly motivated by necessity. Israel has not only assassinated two of Hamas’ leaders in the last 12 months but has also managed to drastically cut the number of suicide attacks being carried out within Israel. However, recent deadly attacks on soldiers inside the Gaza Strip have demonstrated that it remains a force to be reckoned with even.
Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has insisted that his pullout from Gaza will not be conducted under fire, aware of the hugely damaging impact of any perception that the withdrawal is an act of surrender. The prospect of a period of calm in Gaza, as long as there is at least some form of reciprocation could therefore be hugely tempting for Israel. “I think there is a preference, a determination, by Israel to pull out of Gaza in an orderly fashion,” said Israeli analyst Mark Heller. “This is something that Sharon, Abu Mazen (Abbas) and a goodly number of Palestinians I am sure have in common — a desire to see this take place in under conditions approaching normality.”
Sharon was accused of failing to do more to bolster Abbas’ position in 2003 by releasing only a few hundred Palestinian prisoners and handing over security control in only a limited number of area. The premier was then however the head of a narrowly right-wing government. After jettisoning traditional right-wing allies who baulked at his plan to quit Gaza, Sharon has been forced to recraft his Cabinet with the center-left Labour party. Labour leader and Deputy Prime Minister Shimon Peres is in favor of giving Abbas a hand. “We must help Abu Mazen move toward the objectives which he has set himself in extremely difficult conditions,” he said Monday.
