“ I didn’t quite get what he was talking about but it sounded good,” commented Musayib ibn Zayn moments after attending an election rally in one of Riyadh’s luxury hotels. “ Next time, I am sure, I will understand more.”
The man Musayib, an 83-year-old former merchant, had been listening to one of the scores of candidates hoping to win a seat in the Saudi capital’s municipal council in Thursday’s elections.
Last year when the government first announced plans for elections the initial reaction was a raising of eyebrows all around. Conservatives feared that even limited municipal elections would lead to the spread of what they regard as “the disease of democracy” into the very heartland of Islam. To underline their concern they quoted an Arab proverb: “ When the head of he camel enters the tent, the rest of it is bound to follow.” Liberals dismissed the exercise as too little too late, and expressed concern that this may be nothing but a maneuver to give the Kingdom a better image in the West. Later, they were even more dubious when it was announced that women would be excluded.
Those concerns were reflected in slow voter registration and the even slower turn up of candidates in the early stages of the operation. At one point rumors began to circulate about a possible cancellation of the polls. But then, to the surprise of all, things began to pick up as thousands stepped forward to register as voters and stand as candidates.
It is difficult at this stage to gauge the long-term impact of these elections, which starting in Riyadh on Thursday will be competed in three stages over the next few weeks, on the complex politics of this traditionalist Kingdom. Some argue that these elections are limited to municipal affairs; a matter of “collecting the rubbish in the streets,” they say dismissively. Others are trying to hype the exercise into a baptism of democracy in one of the last bastions of traditional Arab rule.
Having talked to people and taken the temperature here in the past few days my guess is that, whichever way things turn, this month’s elections represent a major historic event in the Kingdom.
There are several reasons for this.
The first, and potentially the most important in political terms is that a taboo has been broken.
Even until a year ago, all talk of elections was regarded as almost sacrilegious. The argument was that Muslim societies had no need of elections, which imply competition among individual believers, and could do well with the tradition of “ shoura” or consultation. This means that the man in charge sounds out all those with the greatest expertise in any matter and, making a synthesis of their opinions and recommendations, takes the best decision that would then be endorsed by the most learned of the theologians. There is no need to allow any Tom, Dick and Harry a say in decisions that affect the community of the faithful. The elections held this month deal a blow to that doctrine. They represent an at least implicit recognition of one of the basic principles of democracy: That all citizens are entitled to a say in decisions that concern their lives. (The fact that the female half of the citizenry is excluded this time does not change the basics of the argument.)
The second reason why the exercise is important is that they have revealed no significant popular opposition to the idea of elections as such. The fear that dyed-in-wool reactionaries would use the elections as an excuse for widening their audience has proved groundless. Most Saudis seem to like elections and, far from complaining, look set to demand for more. That elections are widely popular is illustrated by the fact that it has drawn candidates from all generations, the oldest being 81 and the youngest 25, and the widest possible social and economic backgrounds. While the initial election meetings attracted just a handful of curious spectators, rallies held toward the end of the campaign attracted crowds of hundreds, including many who knew how to grille the candidates.
The third reason why these elections are important is that they offer the first glimpse of the Saudi middle classes operating in a nontraditional political context. Much has been written about these new middle classes, men and women who have been transformed from poverty-stricken desert-dwellers to wealthy citizens of modern metropolises within the lifespan of two generations. But this is the first time that a real sociological photography of these middle classes is emerging.
These middle classes represent alternative and new social and cultural structures capable of cutting across traditional tribal lines. Even differences in religious persuasion are either set aside or merely hinted at by a handful of candidates. (In Riyadh, for example, only one candidate cited “ imposing the Shariah” as part of his election manifesto.)
The photography presented by the elections reveals other interesting facts. A majority of the candidates have Western-style educational backgrounds and, in many cases, have attended colleges and universities in Europe or the United States. This is why many candidates seem to have taken to the election like duck to water. Many have hired Western public relations experts to help design their campaigns complete with media blitzes and, in some cases, dirty tricks. Their campaigns would not have been out of place in Peoria.
Last but not least, the elections have already enriched the Saudi political vocabulary in an unexpected direction. Here are some of the new words and phrases that were almost never heard in the Kingdom even a year ago: Elections, campaigning, canvassing, public opinion surveys, focus groups, debates, platforms, voting, candidates, voters, polling station, ballot paper, ballot box, monitors, transparency, accountability, good governance, reform, and renovation.
Before the election campaign had started many had believed that whatever debate and discussion it might generate would be strictly limited to municipal affairs. That did not happen. Many candidates have raised broader issues of national and international concern, and there seems to have been no attempt by the authorities to chaperon them in steering clear of controversy. Even the issue of women’s participation in elections has been raised, once again proving that it is not as “sensitive” as some conservative circles claim.
It may take some time before the actual extent of he power that would be transferred to the elected councils is assessed. What is certain, however, is that decisions by the councils, which will have budgets worth billions of dollars to shape and spend, will affect the day-to-day lives of almost all Saudis.
Cynics might dismiss all this as nothing but a series of verbal pirouettes that ultimately amount to a big confidence trick. But cynics would be wrong, as they always are. A change of discourse is the first and most important step toward more structural political changes.
The Saudi society is a deeply conservative one and inherently suspicious of change. But the elections show that a substantial part of that society is now prepared to try change, albeit in homeopathic doses. Almost everyone agrees that these election are the first step on a long road that the Kingdom has to take to reflect in its political life the dramatic social, economic and cultural changes it has experienced over the past four or five decades.
