BAGHDAD, 15 February 2005 — Iraq’s main Shiite alliance, fresh from winning landmark elections, gathered yesterday to choose a candidate for prime minister and the allies it needs after failing to win an absolute majority.
The alliance, which won 48 percent of votes cast on the Jan. 30 — far short of the 60 percent it expected — will need other parties’ support if it is to dominate the National Assembly, where a two-thirds majority is needed to form a government.
Analysts expect the Kurds, who won 25 percent of the vote, to be kingmakers in negotiations over who will take the top government positions as Iraqis look toward a reduction of the US military presence and eventual withdrawal.
Sunni Arabs, most of whom either boycotted the vote or didn’t turn out because of violence, look set to get barely five seats in the assembly, leaving Iraq’s once dominant minority out in the cold. That could heighten sectarian tensions.
There are also fears of a rise in ethnic tensions around the divided city of Kirkuk, where Kurds won around 60 percent of the local vote after many Arabs and Turkmen, who also lay claim to the oil-rich city, boycotted the election.
In Baghdad, doubts arose over whether the United Iraqi Alliance, an Islamist coalition backed by Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani, would hold together despite its electoral win.
The grouping, which is headed by two religious Shiite parties — the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) and Dawa — also brings together a medley of independents, secular Shiites, some Sunni Arabs and Turkmen.
“All details are being discussed minutely,” said another senior member of the alliance. The Kurds’ second place showing means they will get around 70 seats in the assembly. A list headed by interim Prime Minister Iyad Allawi came third and will have about 40 seats.
Iraq’s two main Kurdish parties, which ran together, have agreed that Jalal Talabani, the leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, will be their candidate for a senior government position and Talabani has indicated he wants the presidency.
Iraq’s new government will have a president and two vice-presidents — all largely ceremonial roles — who must be approved by two-thirds of the assembly. Once they are named, they will choose a prime minister and agree on a Cabinet of ministers who must be approved by a majority.
Horse-trading to decide all those positions is already in full swing. If the Kurds do receive the presidency, then the Shiites are expected to take the prime minister’s post.
The United Iraqi Alliance has several potential candidates, including Ibrahim Al-Jaafari, the head of Dawa, and Adel Abdul- Mahdi, a member of SCIRI who is currently finance minister. Ahmad Chalabi, the former Pentagon favorite who campaigned to overthrow Saddam, is also mentioned as a candidate.
