LONDON, 28 February 2005 — Tony Blair is often described by close aides as an irrepressible optimist. When it comes to the Middle East peace process, he has certainly needed the sunny optimism he has repeatedly shown when the prospects of progress have looked decidedly gloomy.
Friday’s suicide bombing in Tel Aviv was an unwelcome reminder of the scale of the task on the eve of the London conference to be chaired by the prime minister tomorrow on how to bolster the Palestinian Authority. But it has not dented Blair’s hopes that the prospects for progress are the best since President Bush took office. The death of Yasser Arafat, the Palestinians’ new moderate leadership, the new coalition in Israel and the US president’s promise to expend his “capital” on the Middle East provide the four crucial building blocks, he believes. The emphasis tomorrow will be on enabling the Palestinians to be a viable partner in negotiations by providing practical help on security, the economy and political reform. It will be solid rather than spectacular.
Nonetheless, there is a lot riding on the meeting for Blair. Although Israel’s absence puts a limit on what can be achieved, Blair needs to provide some tangible evidence that, as he claimed in Brussels last week, “there’s a renewed sense of vigor and optimism in that process.” With a general election little over two months away, the prime minister hopes that momentum on the Middle East, however slow, will convince voters who opposed his stance on Iraq that his “shoulder to shoulder” support for President Bush is not a one-way street. As one EU diplomat put it: “Blair has got nothing back for Iraq.”
Even many voters who did not oppose the Iraq war believe Blair has spent too much time on foreign affairs. His election campaign is designed to convince them he has not forgotten their day-to-day concerns. Real movement on the Middle East might just convince some that his focus on foreign matters was worthwhile.
Blair plays down the idea of a “quid pro quo” on Iraq and the Middle East. “It’s about creating a virtuous circle including both,” said one adviser. But with many voters skeptical about his ability to influence Washington, his aides are naturally happy for him to take some of the credit for Bush’s decision to start spending some “capital” on the peace process. He probably deserves it.
The prime minister has repeatedly urged the Bush that the US must tackle the causes of global terrorism as well as the terrorism itself. What better cause than the Palestinian question? He is convinced that Bush Mark Two is a different animal to the one who in his first term did not turn his Middle East rhetoric into reality.
British officials say there was “real follow-through from the Bush team” after Blair visited the White House last November. “Sometimes, in the past, we had words but no follow-up. It was different this time”, one said. A Blair aide said: “Bush was never against having a go in the Middle East in principle; he was against failing. He felt he only had one shot at it.”
Privately, British ministers are delighted with the pro-active role being played by Condoleezza Rice, the secretary of state, reflecting the administration’s new commitment. “Colin Powell was a big figure but he didn’t really do that much on the Middle East,” said one source. “He was reluctant to get on a plane, and spent most of his time watching his back.” Ministers also know that Rice speaks for the Bush administration as a whole because of her closeness to the president, and not just a State Department faction within it. “She is bringing more traction and leverage to the process,” said one British source.
However, Blair has had his fingers burned by Washington on the Middle East before. He will have to keep up the pressure on the White House to stay the course, especially when the inevitable setbacks happen. “He believes we have got to take risks,” said one Blair aide. “We don’t know where the process will be in six months, but we know where we want it to be and we’ve got to give it a try.”
It is much to soon to talk about both Bush and Blair celebrating a legacy of peace in the Middle East when they complete their respective final terms in the next few years. Blair knows the prospects will be determined by events, many of which are outside his control. He senses that the tide is finally turning his favor.
“For four years, events have worked against us; now they seem to be working for us,” one close aide said yesterday. But he will need all his optimism in the months ahead.
