Building a healthier future for the Gulf

Building a healthier future for the Gulf

Building a healthier future for the Gulf
Illustration courtesy of Gemini (Google AI)
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With their rapidly advancing economies, young and ambitious populations, and strategic access to both capital and cutting-edge technologies, GCC nations such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE and others have the potential to dramatically increase life expectancy through smart investments in longevity-focused healthcare systems.

Historically, longevity was seen as the result of personal health choices or access to advanced medical interventions. Today, government investments in areas such as advanced healthcare systems, preventive care, age-related technologies and healthier lifestyles can be the true catalysts for significant increases in life expectancy.

If GCC countries allocate just 1 to 2 percent of GDP toward these areas, the region could experience a rewarding longevity dividend, where life expectancy could rise by 2 to 4 years over the next two decades, transforming not just the health of their populations but also the economic landscape.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE already invest substantial resources in healthcare, which serves as a strong foundation for expanding longevity initiatives.

The UAE government currently spends around 3.5 percent of GDP on healthcare. This includes everything from state-of-the-art hospitals to cutting-edge medical research in fields like biotechnology, gene therapy and regenerative medicine.

Saudi Arabia spends approximately 5 to 6 percent of GDP on healthcare. The country is also heavily investing in healthcare modernization under its Vision 2030 plan. These investments are helping address the rise in chronic diseases like diabetes and heart disease, which disproportionately affect the aging population.

When we talk about longevity in the context of public health investment, it is not just about extending life but also about improving quality of life, optimizing healthspan alongside lifespan. This can be achieved by targeting age-related diseases early, making preventive care a focal point of national healthcare systems and encouraging healthier lifestyles for all age groups.

GCC nations are in a prime position to take this step, given their ability to leverage wealth from oil and tourism industries, their growing healthcare infrastructure and their political will to embrace new technologies.

But how exactly can spending 1 to 2 percent of GDP yield such remarkable improvements in life expectancy?

Advancing healthcare systems

Investing in state-of-the-art medical infrastructure will ensure that people live longer, healthier lives. This includes expanding access to cutting-edge treatments and healthcare facilities focused on the prevention and treatment of age-related diseases like Alzheimer’s disease, cardiovascular diseases and cancer. It also means embracing digital health, telemedicine, AI-driven diagnostics and personalized treatment plans, which are already beginning to reshape healthcare systems across the region.

By focusing on precision medicine and integrating biomarker technologies that can predict and prevent age-related diseases, these investments can directly increase life expectancy while reducing the economic burden of healthcare in the long run.

Preventive care programs

A major driver of longevity is the ability to prevent disease before it occurs. Many of the top causes of mortality in the GCC, such as diabetes, heart disease and cancer, can be mitigated or managed with early detection, screening programs and public health education. With targeted investment in preventive care, governments can reduce the incidence of these diseases and ensure that people live longer, more active lives.

This includes implementing nationwide health awareness campaigns, improving access to preventive services like vaccinations and encouraging healthier lifestyle choices such as better diet and exercise habits through public policy.

Age-related technologies

The rapid development of age-related technologies, from biotech and regenerative medicine to robotics and AI, can extend both healthspan and lifespan. For example, stem cell therapies and gene editing could lead to breakthroughs in treating or even reversing age-related conditions. Smart homes and assistive technologies can also improve the quality of life for older people, allowing them to remain independent for longer.

Investments in age-tech, technologies that specifically focus on improving the lives of aging populations, will also help the GCC tackle the economic challenges posed by aging populations, such as pension systems and the cost of healthcare for older people.

Healthier lifestyles

Encouraging healthier lifestyles goes beyond healthcare spending. It is about creating environments that foster well-being. This includes urban planning that promotes active transportation, such as walking and cycling, and creating green spaces that encourage physical activity. Workplace wellness programs and national campaigns that promote mental health will ensure that people live more balanced, fulfilling lives as they age.

With the right investments in infrastructure and public policy, GCC countries can foster a culture of prevention and longevity, leading to a healthier, more vibrant society.

Beyond the obvious health benefits, investing in longevity is also an investment in economic productivity. A healthier, longer-living population means a more productive workforce, people are able to work for longer, contribute to the economy and remain active consumers for decades longer.

A 2 to 4 year increase in life expectancy could also have a positive impact on national productivity levels, potentially offsetting the cost of these investments with increased output and reduced healthcare costs in the long term.

Dmitry Kaminskiy is general partner at Deep Knowledge Group.
 

Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News' point of view

War threatens food supplies in Asia as fertilizer prices soar 

War threatens food supplies in Asia as fertilizer prices soar 
Updated 13 sec ago
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War threatens food supplies in Asia as fertilizer prices soar 

War threatens food supplies in Asia as fertilizer prices soar 

RIYADH: How could a missile strike on a Qatari gas facility drive up the price of rice in Bangladesh? The answer lies in an unappealing commodity, yet one that forms a significant part of the world’s food supply: fertilizer. 

Qatar burns natural gas to produce ammonia, which is then converted into urea. Urea is added to the soil, where grain is grown. 

According to the South China Morning Post, disrupting the first step, as Iran did when it struck QatarEnergy’s liquefied natural gas processing facility on March 1, will have cascading effects along the food production chain. 

The price of urea in Southeast Asia has jumped by more than 40 percent since the Qatari LNG plant went offline. 

By March 9, prices for April and May shipments had surpassed $700 per tonne, their highest level since the third quarter of 2022, when the Russia-Ukraine War disrupted global supplies. 

The Gulf region currently accounts for about 45 percent of global urea exports. 

But the Iranian attacks have made passage through the Strait of Hormuz extremely risky. As a result, shipments representing about one-third of the world’s fertilizer trade have been halted, with Asia being among the most vulnerable regions. 

3 to 4 million tonnes of fertilizer will not reach markets monthly 

According to estimates by analytics firm Signal Ocean, between 3 and 4 million tonnes of fertilizer per month will not reach markets as long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. 

The impact will be particularly severe on South Asia. Pakistan imports most of its LNG from Qatar and the UAE, while Qatar supplies India with more than 40 percent of its LNG imports and about two-thirds of Bangladesh’s. 

All 32 ammonia plants in India — one of the world’s largest producers of nitrogen fertilizers — run on gas. According to Indian media reports, one plant has shut down due to shortages, while three others have reduced production. 

CRU Group vice president of market intelligence and pricing Chris Lawson believes the three South Asian countries will have to “pay a very high price” for fertilizers if they can obtain them on the open market. If they cannot, it will ultimately affect their upcoming harvests.  

Timing is crucial, as farmers in northern India and Pakistan typically fertilize their summer monsoon crops, such as rice, sugarcane, corn, and cotton, between April and July. 

CRU Group estimates that if the disruption to Gulf supplies continues until early April, South Asian buyers could need up to 1.5 million tonnes of additional supply per month. 

The impact of the delay in August 

What makes managing this impending crisis even more difficult is that its effects are not immediate. Fertilizers not purchased in March do not necessarily mean empty shelves in April, but rather a decline in crops in August, by which time the season will be over and nothing can be done about it. 

In an analysis distributed to clients earlier this month, CRU Group warned that if the Gulf crisis continues beyond March 20, “the main risk will shift to wider supply disruptions” due to restricted export routes and limited storage capacity. 

Even if tensions subside, restarting idle production capacity will take an additional two weeks, resulting in a “significant reduction” in Middle East supplies until at least late March. 

Disruptions of this magnitude have triggered a chain reaction in the past, according to Signal Ocean. Farmers use less fertilizer, marginal land requiring more inputs is left uncultivated, and producers switch to crops with lower nitrogen requirements. 

For example, soybeans may replace corn, leading to a surplus in one market and a shortage in another. If enough producers abandon corn cultivation, animal feed will become scarce and prices will rise, followed by higher prices for farmed meat and fish. 

India, China most vulnerable to disruptions 

According to Signal Ocean, India and China are the most vulnerable to supply disruptions, as each relies on the Gulf for approximately 20 percent of its fertilizer imports. 

The company explained that the likely outcome would be lower global crop yields, higher feed and food prices, and increased volatility in agricultural commodity markets. 

Alternative exporters, most notably the US and Brazil, may attempt to compensate for some of the shortfall, but the company indicated that the timing and scale of this response will be crucial in determining the severity of the impact. 

Impossible Choices 

For individual farmers at the periphery of supply chains, the effects could be devastating, according to Alexandra Brand, vice president of sustainability and corporate affairs at Syngenta Group. 

She explained that these farmers already operate on very thin profit margins and may be forced to make difficult choices in the coming months if fertilizer costs rise sharply and supplies dwindle. 

Brand explained that small farmers, family farms, and large commercial farms will all feel the pressure, as each will have to choose between paying prices they cannot afford, cultivating less land, or forgoing fertilizer altogether and accepting a smaller harvest. 

She said that the continued disruption of fertilizer supplies threatens “agricultural productivity and food security for millions of people.” 

Currently, fields are still being planted but most of the fertilizer that was supposed to reach Asian farms is either stuck in the Gulf or has not been produced at all. 

This year’s harvest will reveal this reality. By the time the effects become apparent, it may be too late to act.