What began as a visit to witness the last Pakistan-India cricket match is gaining momentum as an important Musharraf- Manmohan summit. Both the Pakistani president and the Indian prime minister have repeatedly confirmed that all bilateral issues including the issue of Kashmir would be discussed during the Pakistani president's today visit to Delhi. For the Manmohan-Musharraf meetings already preparations were made during a week in Dubai. The two leaders are likely to hold at least two rounds of meetings plus a one on one meeting.
This is likely to be cricket diplomacy at its most substantive. This will be Musharraf's second visit to India after his 1999 takeover. In 2001 he had gone for the Agra summit at the invitation of the then Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee. That summit took place in an environment in contrast to where the two countries now stand. Then it was times of lingering hostility after the Kargil operation.
Now in Delhi the two will meet under very different circumstances. There is regular back channel interaction and around forty bilateral meetings have created the structure for ongoing bilateral dialogue. Unlike the Agra summit, this one follows from intensive and elaborate bilateral interaction.
The two meet in Delhi against the backdrop of important bilateral regional and global developments. Five are particularly noteworthy. One, the landmark reopening of the Muzaffarabad-Srinagar bus route. This is the first sign of Pakistan and India genuinely engaging on the Kashmir dispute while also factoring in the concerns of the Kashmiris. Both India and Pakistan recognize that this is only the first step. To this extent there is commonality in understanding.
The crucial requirement of course is commonality in the eventual solution of the Kashmir dispute. At this stage such commonality may be unlikely. However at this stage the effort from both sides, with the inclusion of Kashmiris, has to work toward a political solution to Kashmir. Much of the bureaucratic and political exchanges take place with that goal in mind. On the ground, according to what the Indian and Western media and the APHC indicate, the Indian policy of eliminating the Kashmiri political struggle still continues. According to an Indian military spokesman recently quoted by an Indian channel, in the month of March 83 "militants" were killed by the Indian security forces. According to the Indian Army official there was only one Indian military causality; similarly there were reports that in mid March the core commander in Srinagar called in the civilian district administrator and shared with him reportedly objective of "barring the militancy of five thousands Kashmiri activists". If such reports are true and the killing and acute human violation continue, the space for finding a three way acceptable solution to the Kashmir dispute may not be find.
On the positive side there have been unconfirmed reports of Congress government considering allowing the APHC leadership to visit Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Pakistan. Such a visit would be after the APHC's first meeting with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. The next common goal post on the path to resolving Kashmir needs to be determined during the Musharraf- Manmohan summit.
Two, the Baghliar Dam dispute has not progressed toward resolution within the bilateral framework. Although India has conceded validity to Pakistan's objection that the existing design of the Baghliar dam violates the 1962 Indus Water Treaty, Delhi has refused to stop work on the dam to resume bilateral dialogue. During the March 31 meeting with the visiting PML delegation the Indian Foreign Minister Natwar Singh said that there were "considerations of overhead costs" which prevented India from stopping the construction work on Baghliar. If India can go past these "overhead cost" considerations, give Pakistan a commitment to stop work on the controversial dam and create conditions for Pakistan to bring the matter back to the bilateral forum, it would greatly contribute to trust-building and to dispute settlement as well. At the Delhi summit, effort must be made to move forward on the Baghliar issue. Also the emerging problem over the Kishan Ganga dam needs to be tackled at this early stage.
Three, there has been progress on the Iran-Pakistan and India gas pipeline. By circumventing the bureaucratic red tape India's Petroleum Minister Mani Shankar Aiyar is keen to go through with the gasline project. Rightly termed as the peace pipeline, the trilateral project will lay the structural foundations for genuine commercial cooperation between India and Pakistan. As the Indian industry has a growing stake in relations with Pakistan, the space for settlement of old disputes will expand. Flexibility will replace the rigidity that we have witnessed over the last five decades.
Four, at the regional level the China factor has begun to play a constructive role in the South Asian equation. As Indian-Chinese ties are on the mend and Pakistan-Indian ties too are moving from confrontation toward conciliation and exploring cooperation, all three will benefit from the peace dividend. This three-way peace, with bilateral overlaps will economically and politically benefit the entire South Asian region. New guiding principles for dispute settlement will help to resolve bilateral disputes. Most importantly, given that the three are nuclear powers and also have overlapping and conflicting threat perceptions, a trilateral nuclear stabilization regime could also be eventually put in place.
Five, at the global level the US relations with the two South Asian nuclear powers have moved on a realist path. While the hyphenated nature of US relationship with Pakistan and India continues Washington has also been able to distance itself from the bilateral disputes that plague Pakistan-India relations. With Pakistan as its non-NATO ally and India as a major trading and upcoming security partner, Washington sees logic in promoting bilateralism, instead of the "external pressure" factor.
All the above create the overall context within which the Musharraf-Manmohan summit will take place. These immediate developments notwithstanding the Pakistan-India relations carry a complex historical burden. Instead of good neighborly cooperation the relationship has been marked by confrontation and tit- for-tat approach. It began with the 1947 parting of ways which left millions dead and displaced.
Now as the two leaderships make an effort to move from the warning zones of interaction to normalization, confidence building and dispute settlement, the Delhi summit acquires special significance. Breakthroughs may not come easy but clear understanding of each other's concerns and the effort to carve more common ground for dispute settlement will be necessary.
