BEIJING, 30 April 2005 — Yesterday’s historic meeting between Chinese President Hu Jintao and Lien Chan, head of Taiwan’s opposition Nationalist Party, highlights Beijing’s more nuanced policy toward Taipei even as, some analysts say, its fundamental approach remains the same.
“It’s classic divide-and-conquer strategy: Assemble the most allies possible and isolate your enemy,’’ said Jean-Philippe Beja, senior fellow at the Center for International Studies and Research in Paris. “But they’re not playing this one badly. It’s a pretty smart move.’’
While Beijing extends a hand to Taiwan’s pro-Beijing opposition, it has maintained its distance from the democratically elected Taiwanese government headed by President Chen Shui-bian. Cross-straits tensions have been strained during Chen’s five years in office as his administration pursued a pro-independence course for an island that China believes is part of its territory. Nevertheless, China said Thursday that it wished to establish a relationship with Chen’s Democratic Progressive Party.
Beijing hopes to accomplish several things with the first top-level meeting between the Communists and Nationalists since the latter fled to Taiwan from the Mainland in 1949 after losing the civil war.
It aims to win points internationally by appearing more reasonable and willing to compromise after the public relations disaster that followed last month’s passage of an anti-secession law that codified China’s willingness to use force against Taiwan if the island pursued independence.
China will reinforce that image with a meeting in coming weeks between Hu and a second major Taiwanese opposition figure, People’s First Party Chairman James Soong.
“These invitations for Taiwanese to visit help China regain the international high ground in cross-straits matters,’’ said Shen Dingli, a foreign policy expert at Fudan University in Shanghai. “And it deflects international focus from the anti-secession law.’’
Beijing’s not-so-subtle message, analysts say, is that it’s willing to meet with “reasonable’’ Taiwanese leaders but not “unreasonable’’ government officials.
A second Beijing objective from yesterday’s meeting is to win over Taiwanese public opinion.
China has several possible carrots it can offer Lien or Soong designed to appeal directly to the Taiwanese people. These include reducing the number of missiles aimed at Taiwan, from the current 700, opening its market to more Taiwanese farm products; allowing mainland tourists to visit Taiwan, allowing Taiwan limited membership in some international bodies, joint hosting of the 2008 Olympics and even the gift of a panda, an echo of the gesture that cemented President Nixon’s 1972 Beijing visit.
China also hopes to box Chen in politically. Analysts said Beijing wants to force Chen to either soften his pro-independence line and make overtures to China in hopes of securing a historic legacy, or publicly reject the initiative and appear churlish.
Beijing’s recent more flexible public approach toward Taiwan follows years of often clunky moves that included lobbing missiles in the island’s direction and issuing verbal threats before Taiwanese elections in hopes of intimidating voters. More often than not, these moves backfired.
“For quite some time, Beijing’s policies have not seemed to reach Taiwanese hearts and minds,’’ said Chao Chien-ming, a professor at Taiwan’s National Chengchi University. “Not only was the Taiwanese government moving further away. More alarming the people of Taiwan also moved further away. They’ve been forced to make a very painful reassessment.’’
Whether China’s efforts this time will resonate in Taiwan remains to be seen. Several Taipei residents expressed skepticism Thursday that people could be swayed by such obvious gestures.
