In Iraq’s struggle against insurgents, bluff and double bluff are inevitable. The statements issued by the government or by the American-led coalition forces must be analyzed as part of a potential campaign of disinformation.
Thus those who were astonished probably should not have been when the Iraqi government announced that it would shortly launch a massive anti-terrorist clampdown in Baghdad. It seems far more likely that the announcement was part of a larger stratagem, designed to lure terrorists into taking a defensive posture which intelligence officials believe might actually assist a strike against them. For instance insurgency leaders might flee Baghdad immediately and so run into carefully prepared ambushes.
The full effect of the operation that is now apparently under way remains to be seen. It is clear that the Americans and the Iraqi forces are focusing increasingly on the west of the country, seeking to stop the flow of men and materials moving across the border.
Nevertheless such a highly publicized anti-terror operation is not without its risks. Many ordinary Iraqis, sick of the endless cycle of violence, will have had their hopes raised by news of the clampdown. The authorities will doubtless be measuring the success of the exercise by the number of suspects arrested and the quantity of weapons and explosives seized. For the insurgents, however, success will simply be a continuation of suicide bombings and assassinations. All they have to do is carry out a few high-profile and particularly obscene attacks, assassinate more senior officials and Iraqis will find their faith in their new government severely damaged.
The arrest yesterday of the leader of the main Sunni political party, Moshen Abdul-Hamid, is also not without its risk. Hamid and his three sons were lifted by US forces in Baghdad in still controversial circumstances. How come one of the few members of Iraq’s Sunni community who has apparently embraced the peaceful political process was detained without evidence? The immediate reaction among Sunnis will be that the political option suddenly looks as if it counts for absolutely nothing if the most senior of Sunnis whom they elected, can be carried off, not by Iraqi police but by American soldiers. Insurgents will use the arrest by the hated Americans as proof positive that all this talk of sovereignty is just a charade.
Even if there is a good case against Mr. Hamid, it must be wondered if his arrest at this very moment was the wisest course of action. Are the Americans playing to a longer plan or is this yet another example of their muddle and poor judgment? The problem is that America’s political, if not military, failure in Iraq is now widely accepted. They have put themselves in a no-win situation because in the eyes of many Iraqis, they can do no right. That is bad. Worse still, everybody is now convinced that Americans can’t ensure security for ordinary Iraqis.
