When Rudyard Kipling coined the term “the great game,” he may not have had the remotest idea that the term would continue to be pertinent even into the 21st century. The launching of the 42 inches wide, 1,090 miles (1,770 km) long Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline last week, to many is the culmination of the first phase of the ongoing great game of the new century. By no means the game is over! It now moves to the trans-Caspian pipeline and to the immense plains of Turkmenistan and the political cauldron of Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and beyond.
The opening up of the BTC pipeline was met with euphoria all around and was termed as the beginning of a new era, not only for the countries involved in the project but for the entire energy thirsty world.
Baku was the site of some of the first industrially developed oil fields in the world at the beginning of the last century but lack of means of transportation to the market impeded the growth of the industry in that region. Now with the launching of the pipeline there is chatter all around that the region is finally catching up with the oil rich Gulf.
With political will available in plenty, nothing was allowed to stand in the way of the gigantic project. From forests to labor laws and endangered species to democracy protesters: All have given way to this costliest pipeline ever built. For Washington, the opening of this dream pipeline was apparently a cause of celebration. Many in the energy fraternity in the US felt that the pipeline adds to their energy security and diversifies the resource base beyond the Arabian Gulf.
Despite initial reluctance, the Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s agreement, just before the official inauguration of the pipeline, committing some of his oil reserves to be carried through the pipeline, extending the life of the pipeline beyond 2010 when Azeri oil production was expected to slump turned out to be a true icing on the cake.
The US has been firmly behind the project for obvious reasons. It made sure that the project overcame many hurdles as the pipeline treaded through tortuous terrain and political minefields. The pipeline has changed the political map of the region. Despite reservations about human rights records and the country’s questionable standing on corruption issues, the Azeri government had full blessings of Washington for the project.
The politics of the pipeline has also changed the face of Georgia, where the battle for control with Russia saw immense US influence deployed in support of the so called “Rose Revolution”. The popular protest ushered the American educated Mikhail Saakashvili into power two years ago. Washington’s new ties with Tbilisi were amply demonstrated when George Bush became the first US President to visit the country early May. In Turkey, where the pipeline crucially delivers its prized content, the black gold, to the Mediterranean - bypassing the tanker clogged Bosphorus straits, it could not be a mere accidental that it does so right next to the American airbase at Incirlik.
Caspian has tremendous untapped hydrocarbon reserves, much of which are located in the Sea basin itself. However, one thing is clear. Oil production in Central Asia and Caucasus region is no match to the energy riches of the Gulf, where there are five major oil powers and several smaller producers. Many of the countries of the Caspian Basin have limited, if any, oil potential.
More than a half of the Caspian region’s proven oil reserves and 80 percent of its estimated reserves are located in one country - Kazakhstan.
The exact size of the Caspian resources is open to considerable debate, with experienced Russian geologists arguing that region will have less than 20 billion barrels of oil to exploit and the US government analysts asserting it may have upward of 200 billion barrels of oil. Proven reserves in Central Asia are however, currently pegged at between 15 billion to 31 billion barrels. Is that worth all this hype!
