That Iran’s presidential election is for the first time going to a second round run-off between the two leading candidates is unsurprising. There were originally almost a thousand contestants who were whittled down to seven for Friday’s ballot, in which 62 percent of the 47 million electorate voted. What is surprising is that facing the long-acknowledged front-runner, former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani on the final ballot is Tehran’s conservative mayor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Ahmadinejad, a former Revolutionary Guard and student leader, is reportedly close to the country’s religious establishment. His victory would of course be viewed with considerable concern by Washington, not least because he was associated with the students who took over the US Embassy in 1979, an outrage from which Americans still smart. On the other hand, Rafsanjani’s return to the presidency would be accepted grudgingly by the White House. During his campaign the former president made a point of promising better relations with the West in which he included the US. He also however made it clear that if president again, he would not be impressed by Washington’s bullying threats about Iran’s nuclear program.
The leading reformist candidate Mostafa Moin came fifth. This may have been because supporters of reform, disappointed with the failure of the outgoing reformist President Mohammad Khatami to bring about many of the changes they want, were encouraged to boycott the poll. It seems likely that the surviving reformist vote was then split between Moin and Medhi Karroubi, who came third in the ballot and immediately alleged electoral fraud. Diplomatic observers have said, however, that any malpractice was probably limited and not decisive. In essence the election so far looks to have been fair and if this continues into the final round on Friday, the Americans will have to accept that they will be dealing with the people’s choice.
The Iranians had been hoping for a high first round turnout of voters and some officials now say the number of ballots will be even higher on Friday. This would certainly send a clear message to the outside world, particularly the Americans. They key question is what will happen to the reformist vote, both that which was split between reformist candidates and that which was never cast. There may be a temptation to boycott the second round in an attempt to undermine the effect of either candidate’s victory. It seems more likely, however, that liberals will throw their weight behind Rafsanjani simply to stop Mahmoud Ahmadinejad from winning. They may also reason that Rafsanjani brings to the job immense political experience and a thorough understanding of the religious establishment. He might thus be able to bring in reforms that the avowedly-reformist outgoing president has failed to achieve. Though Ahmadinejad is apparently favored by some hard-line clerics, it is probable that the majority of the country’s spiritual leaders would also favor Rafsanjani. They will reason that an uncompromising President Ahmadinejad might stoke dangerous dissent and division in the country at a time of potential confrontation with America while a subtle old warhorse such as Rafsanjani could unite most Iranians behind him.
