The Israeli occupation of Gaza officially ends today in a watershed event that has taken almost 40 years to transpire and will help determine where the Middle East goes from here. As such, today’s evacuation of 8,500 Jewish settlers is of a momentous dimension, representing an end to part of one of the world’s last occupations. From today, Gaza is to be considered a foreign territory in which Israel has no jurisdiction. The occasion should not be lost among the demonstrators, the leaders, analysts and those on the ground — some shouting their defiance, others mulling over the details and meaning of the pullout. The event is a here-and-now and should, like all defining moments, have the spotlight to itself.
And yet the talk about what is next cannot be avoided. Observers see the withdrawal as a major gamble which could very well serve as a catalyst to peace or could trigger a fresh round of bloodletting to rival the violence seen at the heights of the recent intifada. Many Palestinians fear a “Gaza first, Gaza last” scenario in which Israel hands back Gaza in return for permanent control over the West Bank — where 245,000 settlers live — and over Jerusalem. Palestinians see many reasons to doubt Israel’s sincerity: Recent Cabinet approval of a security barrier in Jerusalem that slices through Arab neighborhoods, plans for thousands of new homes in the West Bank’s largest settlement, statements by Ariel Sharon that leaving Gaza strengthens Israel’s hold on West Bank settlements. Sharon is the father of Israel’s settlement movement, and few Palestinians think he has suddenly become a dove. His disengagement plan was devised as a unilateral action to break away from what most Israelis see as a political, military and demographic burden. Gaza is indeed a war-shattered, fenced-in coastal enclave whose 1.4 million inhabitants are a source of activists most Israelis would rather have nothing to with.
So while the entire withdrawal is likely to take about six weeks, where it will really end, nobody knows. It could be the prelude to renewed violence or to an Israeli move to tighten its grip on the West Bank. It might topple the current government and give new momentum to the settler movement and Israel’s right wing. Or it could be the beginning of a new peace effort leading to Palestinian statehood.
One more unresolved issue is the power struggle between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority. Hamas does not plan to battle the PA but rejects the idea of allowing any single party to monopolize the decision-making process. Hamas’ founders and top political leaders have vowed to go on fighting, a definite Israeli concern heightened by the group’s strong showing in recent municipal elections, a success likely to be repeated in a parliamentary vote set for January.
The many questions about the future in, and surrounding, Gaza as pertinent as they are, should not detract from the moment at hand, for it has been an exceptionally long time coming and for a price higher than what most people would be willing to pay.
