GAZA, 1 September 2005 — With Israeli settlers gone and troops heading out, Gaza stands at a crossroads. One way could lead to peaceful Palestinian statehood, the other to chaos. Much will hinge on whether Palestinian leaders can impose order where armed factions now reign, and whether a doubtful Israel does its bit by opening Gaza’s borders to create jobs and investment as an alternative to violence.
Tiny Gaza, packed with 1.4 million Palestinians, will gain crucial living space and economic assets in the sprawling tracts vacated by 8,500 settlers.
After soldiers go in late September, Palestinians will control a whole territory for the first time. “Gaza will be under the international spotlight and the Palestinian Authority will have a real challenge to make the most of the opportunity,” said Interior Ministry spokesman Tawfiq Abu Khoussa.
Whatever happens could be critical for the ultimate Palestinian goal of building a state that also brings in the West Bank — 10 times the size. The United States has made clear that it wants Palestinians to sustain calm and launch good government in Gaza before embarking on a peace “road map” toward a Palestinian state.
The most fundamental task in Gaza will be tackling a culture of factional chaos that sprouted under the divide-and-rule regime of the late Yasser Arafat and spread during the revolt against Israeli occupation.
“The spread of arms and forms of chaos acceptable before the pullout cannot be accepted after it. All Palestinians must now show self-restraint to succeed in Gaza,” Abu Khoussa said.
President Mahmoud Abbas has formed a special 7,500-strong police force which, with Egyptian training, is to secure empty settler zones against feared takeovers by motley armed factions. He hopes this will set a precedent for law and order in Gaza. But Abbas has shied from trying to forcibly disarm militants for fear of kindling civil war. Instead he has tried to draw gunmen into security forces and other mainstream institutions to swing them behind peace steps.
But militants led by the grass-roots Islamist Hamas, which is sworn to destroying Israel, vow not to submit to what they see as US and Israeli pressure on Abbas to shut them down.
“Israeli pressures will eventually lead to renewed violent resistance to Zionist occupation,” predicted Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri, alluding to West Bank settlements. “So there is a clear national interest to keep our arms.”
The security apparatus is weak, driven home by militants’ ability to flout Abbas’ cease-fire pact with Israel at will, and raises questions about who will really be running the new Gaza.
However, militant leaders renewed a pledge on Tuesday to honor the truce to the end of 2005 and raised the prospect of extending it during talks with a troubleshooting Egyptian envoy. Hamas also plans to seek seats in Parliament for the first time. It is expected to fare well against Abbas’ graft-tainted Fatah party. Abbas’ aides think such success could help wean Hamas off violence by offering it a say in decision-making.
Even once Israel has got its settlers and troops out of Gaza, though, much still depends on the Jewish state. If the current relative calm continues, ordinary Gazans hope it will encourage Israel to end their economically ruinous isolation from the outside world. At present, Gaza’s unemployment and poverty rates — living on $2 or less a day — exceed 50 percent.
Israel has told Palestinians they can build a Gaza seaport. It has agreed in principle to a trade and travel corridor from the strip across Israeli territory to the West Bank. But Palestinians are alarmed by Israel’s wish to keep control on overland travel into Gaza and access by air and sea. Israel cites a risk of arms smuggling to militants. Palestinians say to continue such controls will deter vital Arab investment.
“The solution to the instability and violence caused primarily by the occupation is to join the global economy,” Gaza economist Omar Shaban said. “Also key will be a genuine anti-corruption fight by the Palestinian Authority.”
Abbas has begun to weed out long entrenched senior officials seen as corrupt and ineffective. But he faces stiff resistance in a deeply fragmented and unaccountable power structure.
Israel’s actions in the West Bank will also play a role. Palestinians fear that the logic of the Israeli plan was to give up Gaza while strengthening West Bank settlements that have nearly 30 times as many Jewish residents as there were in the desert strip, and are growing all the time.
If there is no clear sign of progress toward the statehood talks that Abbas has pledged to pursue while Israel keeps expanding West Bank settlements, it will make his job of winning over the armed groups all the more difficult.
“Creating stability in Gaza is a de facto necessity. But the heart of our quest is the West Bank. To be squeezed into Gaza and a few West Bank cantons is not the comprehensive solution needed for peace,” said political analyst Ali Al-Jarbawi.
