ANKARA, 8 September 2005 — For Turkey, the stakes in Germany’s Sept. 18 general election could hardly be higher — its outcome has the potential to wreck Ankara’s decades-old drive toward European Union membership. Outgoing Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder has been one of the strongest supporters of Turkey’s EU bid, but opposition leader Angela Merkel, who is tipped to win the race, opposes ever taking in the large, poor Muslim nation of 70 million people.
“This is the first time we face a direct threat to our accession drive due to an election in an EU member state,” said one gloomy Turkish official, speaking on condition of anonymity. The timing of the German election too could hardly be more sensitive — just two weeks before Turkey is scheduled to begin its long-delayed EU membership negotiations.
Merkel has said she will respect the EU commitment to open talks on Oct. 3. But Turks know hostility to the very idea of Turkish membership from the EU’s biggest member state will weigh heavily on what is already set to be a long and arduous process. Turkey is unlikely to join the EU until at least 2015. “If a strong member state like Germany starts working against the cause of Turkish EU membership, other smaller states which are skeptic, such as Austria, will also step up their opposition,” the Turkish official said. “Cyprus would also become more intransigent in its demands,” he added.
Turkey rejects the internationally recognized Greek-Cypriot government, which entered the EU last year as the “Republic of Cyprus” representing the whole island. Ankara instead backs breakaway Turkish Cypriots in northern Cyprus. Every one of the EU’s 25 states will have many opportunities to veto talks at any stage of Turkey’s membership process.
Diplomats say Turkey’s best hope for the German poll may be a situation where Merkel fails to win a majority and is forced into a “grand coalition” with Schroeder’s Social Democrats. “The Turks should pray for a grand coalition because this would effectively neutralize Germany in the debate about Turkey in the EU,” said one European diplomat.
An opinion poll published yesterday showed Merkel’s Christian Democrats may indeed fail to clinch a majority with her liberal Free Democrat allies in the new Bundestag. Merkel has proposed a “privileged partnership” for Turkey instead of full EU membership - closer economic, political and security ties with the EU, but no voice for Ankara in the bloc’s institutions or participation in core policies.
Ankara fiercely opposes this option. Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul has branded the idea “illegitimate and immoral.” “(It) nullifies our common effort of half a century. It has the potential to handicap the future of our relations,” Gul told the English-language Turkish Daily News last month.
Most Turkish analysts and commentators agree, arguing that the idea of a “privileged partnership” remains ill defined. “It is an empty box. Turkey already has a privileged partnership as a candidate nation. We also have a customs union with the EU,” said Huseyin Bagci of Ankara’s Middle East Technical University.
Meanwhile, 13 people were killed and 25 injured when a passenger bus caught fire on a main highway near the western Turkey town of Sakarya, the Dogan news agency reported yesterday. According to witnesses, the bus was traveling at full speed when a loud explosion was heard and the front right tire blew out Tuesday night. The bus then traveled for a further 700 meters before coming to a stop, after which a fire broke out.
Police experts were investigating whether the crash was a result of a bomb or a mechanical malfunction. The driver of the bus was taken into custody, however, after it was discovered that passengers were unable to escape via the back door because a number of large bags blocked the exit.
A Kurdish man died in hospital yesterday from a shotgun injury sustained during a demonstration in southeastern Turkey, local officials said. Nine other people, one of them a police officer, were injured in the demonstration on Tuesday, they said. Abdullah Aydan, in his 30s, was hit in the head, apparently when the police fired warning shots to disperse a crowd of some 500 people during a protest on Tuesday in favor of jailed Kurdish rebel leader Abdullah Ocalan in the city of Siirt.
