It is not yet known when Britain’s Conservative Party will have the opportunity to elect a new leader to replace Michael Howard who is stepping down, but it will happen sometime in the next six months.
One of the candidates, who at the time was firmly opposed to invading Iraq, is attacking both Prime Minister Tony Blair over Iraq and the state of denial within Conservative ranks on this subject as a way of gaining support.
On Sept. 1, Kenneth Clarke, the 65-year-old former chancellor of the exchequer with the blokeish manner and enthusiasm for Europe, used his first speech of his leadership campaign, when addressing the Foreign Press Association, to accuse the prime minister of making the United Kingdom one of the main targets for Islamic extremists. He told his audience that Tony Blair had made a “disastrous decision” and the “reasons given to Parliament for joining the invasion were bogus”.
A shrewd and highly experienced political operator at the Cabinet level for years, Kenneth Clarke will know that his approach — which for many in the Arab world does no more than state the obvious — is not without risks.
It is not yet known if the electorate for the leadership contest will be confined just to Tory MPs or of Conservatives in the country will also have some say.
Almost all Conservative MPs in the last House of Commons voted with Tony Blair for the conflict, having been asked to do so by Iain Duncan Smith, then leader of the Conservative Party. Some of these MPs, in the light of events, now believe they were wrong to give the prime minister their support and feel badly let down.
Others, and Michael Howard has backed the principle of regime change with or without the involvement of WMD, still boast they are proud of voting to remove Saddam Hussein and bringing democracy to this Arab nation.
Kenneth Clarke seeks to take advantage of the changing public view on Iraq. Only 30 percent now believe that military action was the right thing to do and 55 percent believe it was the wrong thing to do.
The government has also lost support over its hasty package of anti-terrorist legislation which had not been properly examined within the Home Office.
He is entitled to claim he is not fighting old battles when he declares Blair made a “catastrophic error” in supporting President Bush over the conflict and he adds “we must seek to avoid further mistakes at home and abroad”.
The bombing of London on July 7 has certainly kept Iraq to the fore, as have the shocking scenes of violence on our TV screens from in and around Baghdad. Two British soldiers were recently killed in southern Iraq.
David Davis, the right— wing shadow home secretary, who is the front-runner in the leadership contest, has been giving broad support to Blair’s anti-terrorist proposals. Kenneth Clarke has been cautiously carving out different territory, and in the process taking some of the wind from the Liberal-Democrats’ sails.
That party challenges many Tory MPs in the south of the country.
Kenneth Clarke thinks it is correct to achieve a consensus but he added:
“I see little sign yet that the outline consensus that appears to be emerging is of adequate substance to match the threat. I am aware of no evidence that a bomb has gone off because of a gap in the law. The government is also now seeking to blame our problems on the behavior of extremist preachers in our midst. I support the expulsion of some of these vile propagandists from this country so long as the courts can be satisfied of their guilt of the crimes they are charged with... But the public and the media should not be persuaded by the spin from No. 10 that ‘mad mullas’ are the most important creators of the dangers we face. They are one of the symptoms of the problem rather than the cause of it. No amount of preaching in itself ever made any person turn to the barbaric practice of suicide bombing”.
He attacked Tony Blair directly:
“I am sorry that the prime minister does not understand the limited credibility of his administration. He is not in a position to say, ‘Trust me, there is a threat’, because people do not trust him.”
This was a carefully thought out speech from a heavyweight politician who is more popular in the country, if not within the Conservative Party, than any of the other potential candidates. It began to alter the terms of the political debate in Britain over both foreign and domestic policy for the years ahead. Iraq represents a massive minus both for Tony Blair, and also for Gordon Brown his likely successor who publicly, if reluctantly, supported the war.
