IT is probable that the Iraqis have agreed to the new constitution. Its passing is almost certain because the majority, both Shiite and Kurds, support it. The Sunnis, on the other hand, look at the constitution as a death sentence. They fear that the document, drafted as it was by a Kurdish-Shiite-dominated Parliament, will ultimately divide Iraq into three separate districts: A powerful ministate of Kurds in the north and the majority Shiites in the south, both capitalizing on Iraq’s oil wealth. The Sunnis, according to this scenario, would be left impoverished and isolated somewhere in the middle.
Such a possibility forced the Sunnis to vote in surprisingly large numbers on Saturday, many of them hoping to defeat it by their intense competition with Shiites and Kurds. The large Sunni turnout makes it possible that the vote will be close, though when initial results are announced today, probably not close enough to have the constitution quashed.
Which is in the end probably for the better. Most Iraqis — and other parties concerned — want to move forward rather than in the opposite direction. If the constitution is approved, elections can then be held and a new government sworn in on the last day of the year. But if the constitution is not passed, another one must be drafted by October 2006. A whole year would thus be lost and that is a length of time which Iraq can ill afford. The constitution is by no means the end of Iraq’s myriad of problems. It is of course wholly possible that the emergence of three states or highly autonomous regions instead of a unified Iraq could happen, constitution or no constitution. The breakup and eventual fall of Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union are examples. And elections or not, violence and bloodshed in Iraq have escalated to unprecedented levels. Even if the constitution is accepted, few people believe that it will bring any immediate improvement in the security situation.
Even if approved, it will leave much work to be done. The minority Sunnis will have to be wooed and won over by the time of the elections in December. But nobody can woo and win over the insurgency in its war not only against foreign troops but against the current government as well.
Which is why, using checks and balances, if the assessment is correct, that an Iraq with a constitution is just as chaotic as an Iraq without. At the end of the day, a democratically agreed-on constitution is better than none at all.
For sure, the passing of the referendum will be one of the key components of a future US military withdrawal.
In contrast to January’s parliamentary election which was marred by dozens of attacks, the vote on Saturday passed off in relative peace. The much-feared, large-scale attacks on polling stations did not materialize. What did show itself was another seed of democracy being planted. With all its shortcomings, with the occupation and the bloodbath that accompanied it, it promises the birth of a new Iraq.
