BAKU, 7 November 2005 — As voters cast ballots in a landmark parliamentary election here Sunday, speculation was rife over whether Azerbaijan would become the fourth former Soviet republic in two years to see a popular revolt.
After huge crowds of Ukrainians overturned the result of a rigged presidential poll by camping in the streets in 2004, Azerbaijan’s opposition hopes similar tactics here will force out President Ilham Aliyev.
But observers say the election lacks some of the key ingredients needed to spark a popular revolt, including live television coverage of protests and international support. For Azerbaijan’s under-funded and poorly organized opposition Azadliq (Freedom) bloc, putting up strong resistance to Aliyev’s clannish ruling structure is an uphill battle.
Unlike anti-government forces that won in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan, the opposition in Azerbaijan faces a regime with few qualms about using force to keep power. Revolutions in other republics once part of Moscow’s domain “were facilitated by a split within the ruling elite. In Azerbaijan most of the opposition is in the streets, not the corridors of power,” said Zavdush Alizade, an independent analyst.
The country also lacks an independent television outlet, while the ability of Western broadcasters to air live coverage has been hampered by an apparent government ban on foreign transmission equipment. Live international television coverage, which brought protests in Ukraine to living rooms around the world and galvanized opposition support, will be complicated by the restrictions, a Western broadcasting source told AFP.
Azerbaijan’s eight million people have never seen an election meet international standards and Western powers have urged a free vote. But there has been little evidence of the international support for the opposition that was visible in Ukraine because of concerns over stability in this energy-rich and strategic country, analysts say. The police’s willingness to injure and arrest scores of demonstrators attending unsanctioned rallies in the lead-up to the vote has elicited fears that larger postelection demonstrations could also be subject to a crackdown.
Azadliq’s efforts have been hampered by the bloc’s inability to raise funds from a business elite loyal to the ruling regime. A loose coalition of three opposition parties, Azadliq is also weakened by internal divisions, which have resulted in the group’s inability to select a single leader.
Nonetheless, this is the first election in which major opposition groups “have demonstrated any ability to come together,” said an experienced Western observer of Azerbaijani polls.
The government is taking few chances. Aliyev, who took over from his dying father two years ago in a widely criticized presidential election, last month crushed an alleged coup plot involving members of his own government and an exiled opposition leader. “We will not allow you to sit here, conspire with the opposition and give them money to overthrow the president,” he said.
As polls closed late Sunday, the first reports of irregularities were starting to emerge. “We witnessed interference by the government authorities, instances of some citizens being given ballots in advance and, in certain areas, the obstruction of monitors,” said Anar Mammedli, head of the Western-backed Election Monitoring Center.
