WASHINGTON, 28 November 2005 — In order to contain Iran’s nuclear development and prevent a nuclear arms race in the region, Israel must begin nuclear disarmament.
This, according to a recent report, entitled “Getting Ready for a Nuclear— Ready Iran,” [www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/ pdffiles/PUB629.pdf] published by the US Army War College, commissioned and partially funded by the Pentagon, argues that Iran’s nuclear weapon development cannot be stopped by any current military or diplomatic options.
The report instead recommends that the United States convince Israel to “mothball” its Dimona nuclear reactor and agree to international monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA, something it has refused to do.
Israel, to date, has never officially confirmed that it does not have nuclear weapons, nor denied it. Credible reports of Israel’s sizable arsenal of nuclear bombs are well-documented, as well as their stable of missiles and aircrafts to deliver them any where in the Middle East.
Israel has long-said its nuclear program has prevented conventional attacks from hostile neighbors, but some experts believe Israel’s position may have motivated other countries to develop their own nuclear options.
The study also argues that Israel’s action would persuade other Middle East countries, Egypt or Algeria, to “follow suit and mothball their own nuclear facilities,” which would lead to a regional halt to the production of fissile material that would be the most effective method to successfully isolate Iran.
“It should be made clear, however, that Israel will take the additional step of handing over control of its weapons-usable fissile material to the IAEA only when all states in the Middle East dismantle their fissile producing facilities (large research and power reactors, hexafluoride, enrichment plants, and all reprocessing capabilities) and all nuclear weapons states (including Pakistan) formally agree not to redeploy nuclear weapons onto any Middle Eastern nation’s soil in time of peace,” said the report.
Nuclear nonproliferation expert Henry Sokolski, Executive Director of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center, and Iran specialist Patrick Clawson, Deputy Director for Research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, edited the report, based on research and meetings with the nation’s leading experts on Iran, the Middle East, and nuclear proliferation.
India and Pakistan have already proved their nuclear capabilities, and the Middle East is close to a nuclear weapons arms race, Sokolski told reporters: “You have a whole neighborhood of folks posed, at any time, to go nuclear.” He said the call for Israel to suspend its nuclear development activity is “controversial,” but said: “A Middle East with yet more nuclear powers could turn into a big, big death bath.” “An Iran with advanced nuclear capabilities that put it close to having a bomb would likely be a more assertive Iran. Iran might well want to throw its weight around,” co-author Patrick Clawson said during a recent discussion of the study at the Washington Institute. “For example, it could claim that the fate of Jerusalem is a matter that concerns all Muslims and therefore Iran should have a say in any settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Iran might become active in the many disputes in the Caucasus region, such as in Chechnya; after all, this is territory Iran lost to Russia less than two hundred years ago.” Washington’s involvement in Mideast nuclear negotiations are essential, Clawson argued because the US and Iran may well become involved in a Cold War, which he said would only end “as the regime evolves.”
