NAIROBI, 24 December 2005 — Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni has got used to having things his own way. The 62-year-old former rebel leader seized power in 1986 and has ruled virtually unchallenged since then. Last year, he saw a supportive Parliament vote away a legal ban on a third term and he is firm favorite to win a 2006 election. But with the poll set for Feb. 23, the path to victory for a one-time darling of the West will be no smooth ride.
Internal dissidents are more active than ever and winning a growing audience for their argument that Museveni has turned into the sort of African autocrat he used to mock. Rumblings abroad about Museveni’s power lust began with the change on term-limits last year. They have reached a crescendo since his main political opponent, Kizza Besigye, was put behind bars on charges ranging from treason to rape. “He’s not just like Robert Mugabe, he’s worse,” said commentator and critic Andrew Mwenda, comparing Museveni with the Zimbabwean leader who is the West’s bete noire in Africa. “Uganda’s problem is one-man rule. If Museveni wakes up in a good mood one morning, he may release him (Besigye). If he is in a bad mood in the evening, he may be back in jail.” Western donors — who once hailed Museveni as the foremost of a new breed of African leaders and still fund half his government budget — are cutting aid in an ever less subtle show of disapproval of his waning democratic credentials.
Besigye’s jailing has, ironically, raised his profile hugely inside and outside Uganda. It has also provided a rallying point to galvanize his Forum for Democratic Change (FDC). If Besigye is released under a deal, as is speculated, analysts think his presence on the campaign trail could help the FDC mount a proper challenge to the hegemony of Museveni’s ruling National Resistance Movement “Support for the NRM is very strong but very shallow. If people think there is a credible alternative, they might shift,” said Africa expert Tom Cargill.
“This government has become extremely unpredictable,” said William Tayeebwa of Makerere University. “Either way, from behind bars or on the campaign trail, I still believe Besigye will perform better. In 2001, he had close to 30 percent of votes. That must go up with his arrest.” Diplomats in Kampala say, however, that the FDC would still face a tall order to overturn Museveni’s popularity among many rural voters, however much the urban chattering class was being put off him by recent political events. “In the countryside they still view him as the man who has kept peace and stability, and can ensure the crops are planted and harvested without disruption,” a Western diplomat said.
Stability is, indeed, Museveni’s trump card. Even though the north is ravaged by the long-running revolt of the Lord’s Resistance Army, he has given to the rest of Uganda a peace and continuity rare in much of Africa.
That, as well as his economic reforms and successful fight on HIV/AIDS, was the bedrock of past rosy ties with the West. But now there is increasing disillusionment among the international community toward Museveni, whom critics say has metamorphosed from a progressive to a typical African “Big Man.” In the latest show of disapproval, Uganda’s biggest donor and former colonial power Britain this week cut 15 million pounds ($26.5 million) in aid and froze another 5 million.
Other European nations have taken similar steps, though most of the cash is still being distributed in Uganda by other hands. While the international community has big financial clout in Uganda, and aid suspensions will undoubtedly hit the Museveni government’s coffers, few expect anything more dramatic.
