If Sri Lanka’s two-decade-old civil war flares again, as many fear it will, Tamil Tiger rebels are likely to launch an assault on northern Jaffna as well as hit-and-run guerrilla attacks on supply lines, analysts say.
The Jaffna Peninsula is seen by the rebels as the center of a future Tamil homeland, but they have held it only intermittently in the past and it is now under government control, albeit surrounded by Tiger territory.
“Jaffna is their main focus,” said Janes Defense Weekly analyst Iqbal Athas, referring to the Tamil Tigers.
“Certainly attacks will intensify. If you are looking at conventional warfare, they cannot take it (Jaffna) but we are also talking about guerrilla warfare.” A truce between the rebels and the government has halted major attacks for almost four years, but the peace has been severely strained in recent weeks.
A string of claymore fragmentation mine attacks on patrols and convoys in December killed 39 military personnel. Most troops patrolling Jaffna say they expect war sooner rather than later.
Observers say suspected rebel attacks have produced a backlash by troops in the town, and now the Tigers say army abuses are prompting civilian retaliations and could force war.
Cut off by the sea and the de facto state the rebels have run since the 2002 truce, the 40,000 Sri Lankan troops there may outnumber a total Tiger army seen as 20,000 strong at most, but are solely dependent on sea and air resupply.
Sea Tiger rebels — accused of sinking a naval fast attack boat at the weekend with the loss of 13 sailors — would be likely to hit sea supply hard if war came, analysts say, while the heavily defended Palaly air base is also seen as vulnerable.
“All you need to do is damage the runway or the fuel tanks,” said Athas. “The army holds the peninsula, undoubtedly, but how much control do they really have when you consider how many grenades and claymore mines have been smuggled there.” The army says most of the enclave’s residents support them, but in reality most analysts say Tiger support seems strong.
Some believe that if the rebels were able to take the town — a massive undertaking that would be likely to incur heavy civilian and combat casualties — they might sue for peace.
“It will be short and sharp,” said Jehan Perera of the non-partisan National Peace Council. “There is no enthusiasm on the government side for a long war.” Some analysts and diplomats say neither side would gain much from a war, and while there might be battles of attrition, the front lines would barely move. They believe the rebels have been launching attacks to bolster their position before talks.
“Very little would be achieved by military means,” said Control Risks Group analyst Maria Kuusisto. “The positions are very fixed. The LTTE has its strongholds in the jungle and the government its strongholds in the cities and along roads. Very little movement would take place.” Analysts say both sides are desperate not to be seen as the first to end the cease-fire.
Even if neither side officially withdraws from the truce, any new widespread conflict would be likely to see Nordic cease-fire monitors pull out and aid workers abandon some relief projects launched after the Dec, 2004 tsunami slammed into the east coast.
And if war comes, many fear the military would resort to aerial bombing while the rebels might send suicide bombers again into the capital, Colombo. Previous assaults have killed or wounded political leaders, hit the central bank and the twin-towered World Trade Center and, in the case of a 2001 attack on the international airport, destroyed half of Sri Lanka’s airline fleet.
