COLOMBO, 21 January 2006 — Ancient Arab seafarers called Sri Lanka Serendib, which gave us the word serendipity — the faculty for making happy and unexpected discoveries.
But there is little serendipitous today about the emerald green Indian Ocean island, which appears set to resume a civil war that was one of the world’s bloodiest before a 2002 truce.
The conflict over the minority Tamils’ demand for a homeland, which began in earnest in 1983, killed more than 64,000 people in fighting between Tamil Tiger rebels and the army, massacres of villagers by both sides and communal riots.
Now, after several years of peace, more than 100 people have been killed since early December, mostly in attacks on the military in the Tamil-dominated north and east. The Tigers have been blamed, but deny any role in the fighting. Few believe them.
“We are seeing a war already,” said defense analyst Iqbal Athas of Jane’s Defense Weekly. “It’s an undeclared war. We are seeing the loss of two to three people a day.”
Historically, diplomats and analysts say, the Tigers have used cease-fires to regroup, rearm, and then resume fighting for their homeland.
They seem to be doing just that this time too.
Funded by donations from Tamils around the world, and by drug smuggling, the Tigers have bought weapons, ammunition, electronics and radar equipment, a senior Sri Lankan military officer said.
“The Tigers have needed more accurate and more sophisticated weapons, and they seem to have acquired that capability,” the officer said. They are believed to have two or three light aircraft, a fleet of fast boats and even heavy artillery.
Norwegian diplomats, who brokered the cease-fire and are aghast at its rapid deterioration, are mounting a last-ditch effort to preserve peace on the island.
Envoy Erik Solheim will be in Sri Lanka next week to hold talks with the government and, separately, with the Tigers to propel both sides toward face-to-face discussions.
The government called an all-party meeting on Thursday which unanimously agreed on the need for urgent talks with the Tigers, a development which drove Colombo’s main stock market index up as much as four percent yesterday after weeks in the doldrums.
But the two sides cannot even agree on a venue for the talks, although there were indications the government may accept the Tiger’s suggestion of Oslo. Still, they remain far apart on substantive issues.
The Tigers want President Mahinda Rajapakse to give them a homeland with wide powers, and say they will resume fighting this year if they are thwarted.
They say the years of peace have brought them little dividend and point to differences with the government over sharing the global aid which poured in after the 2004 tsunami as a sign of the mutual antipathy.
Military abuses against Tamil civilians in the north and east have further poisoned the atmosphere, they say.
The government says it is willing to give the Tigers wide autonomy but will not countenance independence. It says it will be unable to restrain its troops if attacks on the military continue.
“Mr. Solheim is not a magician so he won’t be able to pull very much off,” said Athas, the defense analyst. “He will find it very difficult to turn it around. It’s a very gloomy picture.”
Military sources say they are prepared for a rebel push into the northern peninsula of Jaffna within weeks, perhaps when the current wet season ends in February/March. Jaffna is the seat of an ancient Tamil civilization, but is currently held by the government with about 40,000 troops.
Many say even that may not be enough to hold off the Tigers, who are believed to number up to 18,000-20,000. Most are from Jaffna, as is their shadowy and ruthless leader, Velupillai Prabhakaran.
It is mainly Prabhakaran’s unswerving determination to achieve a Tamil homeland, and the fanatical loyalty he commands, that augurs against peace, analysts say.
“He controls the accelerator, the brake and the steering wheel,” said a Western diplomat. “He will decide where he wants to go.”
