Notwithstanding the historic ties between Saudi Arabia and India, which have been sustained by the current oil, trade and expatriate dynamics, the way forward for the two countries rests on developing a paradigm that hinges on strategic political, economic and security dimensions.
The common political and security concerns translate into efforts for peace and stability in the Gulf and South Asia. The emerging perceptions create further opportunities for Saudi-Indian cooperation in the future. While Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states are going through important changes and transformations, the process of understanding and integration needs to intensify beyond the traditional issues. It is important to identify six strategic areas that could improve Saudi-Indian relations.
First, it is imperative for Saudi Arabia to understand India’s importance. While characteristics such as India’s being the world’s largest democracy, home to 150 million Muslims, having the fourth largest economy in the world in terms of purchasing power parity and being the world’s largest provider of peacekeepers are well documented, India’s strategic importance lies in what it is about to become — the fourth largest consumer of energy by 2010. This indicates the economy’s momentum; the information technology work force has exceeded two million in five years; there are high-tech plans to develop supercomputers, complete nuclear fuel cycle facilities and place satellites in orbit; replicating the IT success in biotechnology, biogenetics and pharmaceuticals; and, more importantly, being a strategic partner of the United States, which is willing to share nuclear technology for civilian use and even share roles in joint space missions.
Second, Saudi Arabia must take note of India’s renewed interest in the Gulf. While energy security — to ensure stable prices and uninterrupted fuel for its economic growth — is certainly a factor, India also plans to showcase its power and influence in the region. This expanded security perspective is driven by necessity, ambition and opportunity. The desire to lead coincides with its rise as a major power with continental aspirations.
Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh and former Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee have called for looking beyond the immediate neighborhood. After Pakistan, China, Russia and the US, the Gulf is the focus to ensure against any maritime or landward threat to it from the region, serve as a base to pursue India’s interests, confront terrorism and extremism and to tap the investment potential as well.
By focusing on the Gulf and restoring traditional links with the immediate and extended neighborhood, India is seeking to address its shortcomings in the historical, security, economic and global decision-making realms. Indian leaders are now talking about “soft power” and diplomacy. They are suggesting that the security of Gulf countries, as well as the wider Middle East, is of “paramount concern” and New Delhi is ready to contribute to the stability of the region by sharing its experience in combating terrorism, maritime security and military training.
India now stresses that events in Iraq have brought home the fact that a politically unstable nation could become a spawning ground for terrorists. India says: “Linkages with illicit trafficking in narcotics as well as in small arms have enhanced the destructive potential and lethal reach of the terrorists. The fight against terrorism has to be long-term, sustained and comprehensive. It cannot be adhoc, selective or compartmentalized in terms of a region or religion.”
Third, as an extension of the interest in the Gulf, India’s focus on Saudi Arabia now goes beyond historical, cultural, civilizational and economic affinity. India is keen on Saudi cooperation in ensuring safety and security of sea lanes of communications, safety and freedom of navigation in the shipping lanes and trade routes, positively influencing religious extremism and/or transnational terrorism, narcotics trafficking and proliferation of weapons in the region, and most importantly, achieving peace with Pakistan in light of the strong bond between Riyadh and Islamabad.
Fourth, in order to showcase its new image and potential, as well as to achieve its objectives, the Indian military services are undertaking a major buildup of conventional arms, creating ways of delivering nuclear weapons and defending against them, planning construction of warships, planning to enhance military logistics in Central Asia and has begun discussions with the US for an Asian version of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). All these come in the wake of India’s existing maritime security involvement involving Asian, African, European and Gulf states, as well as Russia and the US. Further, the Indian Coast Guard and the Indian Navy have been active in anti-piracy, disaster relief, and environmental management and response operations.
Fifth, all these factors raise several issues for Saudi Arabia to ponder. Foremost among them is Iran. Since India has maintained good relations with Iran, including a military cooperation agreement in 2003, improved Saudi-Indian ties could be used as a tool to engage New Delhi in the role of an honest broker in relations between the GCC states and Iran. Better strategic relations would also ensure that India’s ties with the GCC are on a par with its ties with Iran and this would be a good way of protecting the region’s unique selling point in the energy sector, especially since India has acquired stakes in the oil and gas fields of more than a dozen countries around the world.
Of equal concern is the fact that Israel is India’s second largest military supplier after Russia, and India is the largest market for Israeli arms exports. In 2004, the two countries concluded a $1.1 billion deal for the supply of three Phalcon advanced airborne early warning systems to India. Both sides are also cooperating in counterterrorism operations and Israel is supplying India advanced surveillance and border-management systems. Further, some Indian leaders are even suggesting a triangular alliance between India, Israel and the United States.
Last, Saudi Arabia needs to utilize Custodian of the Two Mosques King Abdullah’s visit to lay down some confidence building measures which could take the bilateral relationship to the next level. Of vital importance is the need for a mechanism to play a constructive role in the differences between India and Pakistan over Kashmir. Some in India still suspect a secret Saudi-Pakistani defense alliance to help Islamabad against New Delhi in case of a war. Relations with Saudi Arabia are no doubt one of the fundamentals of Pakistan’s foreign policy, but the fact is that Saudi Arabia did not extend any form of support to Pakistan during the Kargil conflict of 1999. In addition, since 2001, Riyadh has expressed its hope that the Kashmir dispute could be resolved peacefully through meaningful bilateral dialogue within the framework of existing agreements; this was a shift from the earlier emphasis on third party mediation. While India’s new diplomatic push with Saudi Arabia is partly a reaction to that shift, Kashmir and close Saudi-Pakistani ties remain obstacles for proactive Saudi-Indian relations. Riyadh should capitalize on the thaw in Indo-Pak relations and push for a mutually acceptable solution to Kashmir.
Among the other CBMs, Saudi Arabia could support India’s candidature for a UN Security Council seat; discuss its objectives, interests, and concerns in the region and accordingly, either accommodate them or dispel them; hold a candid dialogue on a new Gulf security structure; urge India to join the Committee on International Security and Cooperation in West Asia as a dialogue partner; seek Saudi membership in the Conference on Interaction and the Confidence Building Measures in Asia; offer to join the Indian Ocean Rim Association for Regional Cooperation; establish a forum to provide a significant framework for dialogue on bilateral human security issues, including labor matters; discuss ways of facilitating the Saudi Manpower Council’s strategic decision to reduce the number of expatriate workers in the Kingdom; tap the Indian skilled manpower reservoir in the science and technology sectors and seek training for its citizens to make Saudization more purposeful and facilitate speedy signing of the proposed GCC-India Free Trade Agreement.
(Abdul Aziz Sager is chairman of the Dubai-based Gulf Research Center.)
