If public prosecutors in Milan have their way, Italy’s Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi will head into next month’s general election as an indicted fraudster. They have asked the courts to indict him and the husband of Britain’s Culture Secretary Tessa Jowell on corruption charges and hope the case will go to trial in May. In most countries, indictment on any charges, but particularly corruption, is the kiss of death to electoral hopes. But Italy is different. Scandal and politics seem to go together all too easily there; it is only in exceptional circumstances that the electorate turns against tainted politicians.
Berlusconi is already a startling proof of that fact. This would not be the first time that he had been indicted on corruption changes — far from it. He has been in court seven times on such charges, most recently two years ago. Four times he has actually been found guilty. Yet Italian voters have continued to back him despite all this, or possibly because of it. A significant number of them admire this self-made tycoon and the way he has climbed to the top of the business and political ladder. They are not put off by allegations of sleaze and bribery or his blatant attempts to change the law to self-immunize from the grip of the law. The fact that he won the 2001 general election against a deafening chorus of such allegations is proof of that. Even after the 2004 court case, the first in which an Italian prime minister faced criminal charges, they are not put off; a couple of days ago, the latest opinion polls showed him closing the gap on the center-left coalition led by the former prime minister and European Commission president. Romano Prodi is still ahead, but only just.
How this latest development will affect the race is impossible to tell. It ought to be good news for Prodi, but based on past performance that may not be the case. Berlusconi is not just Italy’s Mr. Teflon and one of the country’s most successful prime ministers since World War II in terms of staying power, he is a man who positively relishes this sort of personal fight — and the Italians love it, too. His flamboyance, charisma and bullishness put sparkle into Italian politics. Conversely, the reason why many voters are against Prodi is because they find him tedious and schoolmasterly. This view of politics as entertainment is hardly a sensible one; flamboyance should not be a recommendation by itself.
In fact, Italians are no more beguiled and dazzled by spin and charm than voters elsewhere. They will vote, at the end of the day, for what is in their interests. If they think that Prodi has better financial policies, they will vote for him; if not, they will stick with Berlusconi. That may prove Berlusconi’s salvation because at the moment the focus is not on his economy achievements — the general consensus is that the Italian economy is sluggish; it is on whether Prodi’s policies will make things better or worse, or whether they will even work at all. In other words, the vote looks set to be a verdict on Prodi, particularly his tax plans, not on Berlusconi and his sleaze. For the opposition, it is not the best position to be in at this point in the campaign.
