There is little buzz in Israel over today’s elections. Voter apathy is rife. There’s been little electioneering, an absence of the usual “vote-for-me” posters, and, there’s likely to be a low voter turnout. Most observers believe the results are a foregone conclusion with centrist Kadima garnering around 34 seats, leftist Labor 21 and right-wing Likud 15. Nothing is written in stone, however, and there could be some upsets.
Firstly, 20 percent of Israeli voters — especially young people — are still undecided. With 22 “floating” seats still unclaimed, first time voters or swing voters could make a difference.
Polls show that Yisrael Beiteinu, supported mainly by Russian Jews, could leapfrog Likud this time around becoming Israel’s third largest party, while other polls indicate it isn’t even in the running.
An unknown quantity is Labor, now led by Moroccan-born Amir Peretz, a socialist ex-union boss and one-time farmer. Peretz is a little rough around the edges for many traditional Labor supporters — profiled as mainly Ashkenazim (European) intellectuals. Others within Labor are uncomfortable with Peretz’ Moroccan roots, and, as such, there could be a serious defection to Kadima.
For his part, Peretz hopes that the void left by these former Ashkenaz Labor loyalists will be filled with Mazrahim (Eastern Jews), who largely make up Likud’s support base. Interestingly many of these do not necessarily follow Likudist ideology but gravitated toward the party due to Labor having been perceived as elitist and unwelcoming.
Whether after decades of Likudist affiliation, Mizrahi voters will embrace Peretz as one of their own and switch allegiances is yet to be seen.
The fact that most Israelis view the poll’s outcome as a done deal with Israel’s caretaker Prime Minister Ehud Olmert consolidating his power could also influence the vote. Kadima is concerned that its supporters, convinced of their party’s victory, might not bother to turn up at the booths.
But whatever the nuances, Israelis are likely to wake up tomorrow to a Kadima-Labor coalition, which basically translates to more of the same.
Israeli columnist Gideon Levy writing in the left-wing Haaretz daily, comments harshly on Israel’s political status quo. “Contrary to appearances, the elections this week are important, because they will expose the true face of Israeli society and its hidden ambitions,” he says.
“More than 100 elected candidates will be sent to the Knesset on the basis of one ticket — the racism ticket. If we used to think that every two Israelis have three opinions, now it will be evident that nearly every Israeli has one opinion — racism.”
Levy says that Knesset members have no interest in a negotiated peace settlement and neither do voters. “Nobody is speaking about peace with them (the Palestinians), nobody really wants it. Only one ambition unites everyone — to get rid of them, one way or another...” he says.
Olmert is so sure of his win that he has already buried the so-called “road map”. Indeed, he is already unilaterally drawing up Israel’s final borders and plans to seek a US stamp of approval, which he is likely to get as long as America perceives he has no Palestinian peace partner and continues its rejection of a Hamas-led Palestinian National Authority.
Kadima’s border ambitions would leave the Palestinians with only 12 percent of historic Palestine sliced into noncontiguous portions. Jerusalem and the Jordan Valley would be closed off to Palestinians, while the larger settler colonies, such as Ariel and Maale Adumim are scheduled to stay and expand. This would leave Palestinians without an economically or socially viable state.
In his column titled “One Racist Nation”, Levy slams his disinterested and apathetic compatriots, saying: “Morality has become a dirty word, and the worst corruption in the country’s history, the occupation,” is never mentioned. He further highlights a recent Israeli poll indicating that as much as 68 percent of Israelis wouldn’t want to live next to an Arab.
In the meantime, the Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is urging the Israeli government to cooperate and doing his utmost to persuade Hamas to moderate. When it comes to Kadima, he’s probably fighting a losing battle, since if Olmert gets the international OK to set Israel’s frontiers, then what incentive does he have to bother with “land for peace” negotiations?
By comparison, Hamas is sounding positively conciliatory.
On Sunday, the yet-to-be-sworn-in Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh confirmed that Hamas isn’t interested in pursuing “a local bloodbath” but rather “the attaining of the legitimate rights and respect of the Palestinian people.”
Haniyeh’s statement was backed up on the following day with another proposal. “Our government will be ready for a dialogue with the Quartet committee to look into ways to end the state of struggle and achieve calm in the region,” he said.
Many influential Israeli politicians are interpreting Haniyeh’s words as empty “sweet talk”. In fact, it’s in their interests to do so, because the minute Hamas morphs into a real peace partner, their unilateral border ambitions would be curtailed.
For those of us who are passionate about regional peace, the dream outcome of Israel’s elections would see Labor’s Amir Peretz, who has vowed to work for peace, attaining real political influence. At the same time, the Quartet should latch onto the new public mood of Hamas and put its leaders to the test as to whether their actions match up to their words.
With genuine political will on both sides and a committed honest intermediary, peace is surely attainable. But when you throw Israeli expansionist ambitions into the same pot with a Palestinian Authority prematurely labeled “terrorist” and an ineffectual squabbling Quartet, the resulting brew is at best unpalatable and at worst a poisonous sludge.
What is needed is a new Yitzhak Rabin to think outside the box and courageously take chances. But where is he? And, more importantly, do Israelis even care to find him?
