The UN Security Council has ruled that Iran has 30 days to return to the negotiating table over its nuclear-fuel enrichment program, which it claims is purely civilian but many fear is aimed at the production of weaponry. The immediate defiance voiced by Iran’s ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Aliasghar Soltaniyeh, should be weighed against a more moderate reaction from Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki who said his country “mistrusted” negotiations. This may be indicating Tehran realizes that there is far more at stake here than its nuclear program. The Security Council’s resolution is significant not simply because all five members backed it, including the Russians and the Chinese, but that the Americans were content to let the resolution go through without any formal threat of sanctions.
Did this happen because Washington realized that no resolution that included sanctions would get through? Or does this represent a shift in America’s approach to the UN, a re-found recognition after its Iraq blunder that unilateral action creates more problems than it solves? If the latter is the case then the Iranians can claim a diplomatic victory in re-engaging the Americans in formal UN processes. Coming on top of Iranian-American discussions on the future of Iraq, all of a sudden the Iranians would seem to have mapped out for themselves a new position in Middle East affairs. Since the fall of the Shah, Iran’s power has been only the power to negate. It has not been able to create, to participate in international councils, or to play a positive role and earn the respect of the international community.
The matter of its nuclear program has changed the landscape. Iran has been able to protest that a covert nuclear state like Israel has not been censured nor threatened with sanctions. It has refocused international attention on the core provision within existing nuclear non-proliferation agreements that all nuclear powers should be working toward the abolition of nuclear weaponry. These are real achievements, which will disappear if Tehran insists on holding to an intransigent line on the inspection of its nuclear program and non-compliance with its non-proliferation commitments. It is not unexpected that Washington has said that if Iran does not comply, the Security Council might well impose sanctions. Its threat of military action also still lies on the table. However it is clear that Russia and China are not yet prepared to go the extra mile for sanctions — yet. And any thought of backing the use of force is inconceivable.
In a sense, it is therefore now incumbent upon Russian and perhaps also Chinese diplomats to take the lead in persuading Iran to rejoin the talks during the next month. Iran will probably want to go to the wire and then some. However it must be hoped that it values what it has already achieved. To comply with the same rules that apply to all states using nuclear power for civilian purposes will cost it nothing — if its program is peaceable and will also isolate the regional nuclear menace that is Israel.
