The collision on Tuesday of a Turkish and a Greek F-16 fighter is just the incident that these two ancient rivals did not need. For more than a decade, it has seemed that old enmities were easing. An event such as Tuesday’s threatens to undo all that has been achieved by successive governments in Ankara and Athens.
Though on both sides official spokesmen have tried to play down what happened, much of the media has adopted a dangerously chauvinistic line. It could be argued that each is only reflecting the suspicions of their publics, which in the case of the Greeks border on the visceral. It is an equally unfortunate truth that the gentle and welcome rapprochement built by the politicians has come about despite public opinion, even though in the final analysis, no politician can afford to ride roughshod over his electorate’s prejudices.
The disputed area of the Aegean is a hangover of tragic and brutal exchanges of populations following Ataturk’s defeat of invading Greek armies and the end of the Greek dream that they could once again make Constantinople, now Istanbul, their political and spiritual capital. The confrontation is sharpened today by the possibility that beneath the contested waters lie significant quantities of oil and gas. Nevertheless it is more immediate commercial interests that have been driving the rapprochement between the two neighbors. Tourism is a major earner for both economies. Foreign visitors are not going to come to Turkish or Greek resorts in the Aegean if there is any risk of a shooting war breaking out. This is the very start of the Mediterranean tourist season and the impact of a serious confrontation on both Turkish and Greek resorts would be extremely serious, if not disastrous.
It is of course unclear if military commanders on each side are perhaps pursuing dangerous agendas of their own. For a thousand aerial violations of the disputed region to have taken place in the last year smacks of risky saber rattling. To what extent, it may be wondered, are the political paymasters of each country’s military actually authorizing this brinkmanship? If commanders on either side are exceeding their orders, then they should be disciplined. Unthinking members of the public may support insubordination in such jingoistic circumstances, but in a modern civilized state, generals cannot be allowed to dictate policy. Both countries have had relatively recent experiences of military rule and few in either country would wish to return to such.
The Aegean dispute does need settling. It is regrettable that neither side can agree on how. The Greeks want international arbitration. The Turks want to cut a deal directly with the Greeks. The danger of the former is that the outcome may suit neither party and lay the seeds for future conflict. On the other hand, it is hard to see how bilateral negotiations can get anywhere in an atmosphere of deep distrust. However statesmanlike the politicians may be, their work will always be in danger of being undermined by rabble-rousing media. The Greek and Turkish publics need to wake up to reality and back their elected leaders in the search for a lasting settlement.
