I can hardly believe the World Cup is on us once more. When I was a player and had just played one World Cup, four years until the next seemed an eternity to wait. But now it feels as if the finals in Korea and Japan were only yesterday and we have barely finished celebrating Brazil’s victory in Yokohama. We saw then how far Asian football had progressed. But I must warn that their teams will likely take a step back this time. I believe it will be hard for any of the four teams going past the group stage — not even Korea.
They were tough opponents in their own country because of the fantastic support of their fans and with a little good fortune. But I am afraid their fans will find it’s a different story in Germany, on the other side of the world, where more defensive football will be played. Many of the national coaches will want to play a European style of football, which is tighter and more physical.
What I can assure the fans is that the organization will be fantastic. I have special memories of the World Cup and Germany going back to 1974. When Brazil had won for the third time in 1970, we won the right to keep the Jules Rimet trophy. So at the opening ceremony in 1974 I handed the new World Cup to Uwe Seeler, the former German captain, and he handed me the Jules Rimet trophy so I could take it home to Brazil. Franz Beckenbauer — I call him my “German brother” — won the World Cup then as their captain and now he has done another great job with his organizing committee. So has FIFA, in enforcing a four-week break for all the players between the end of their domestic season and the start of the World Cup. In 2002 it was sad to see major nations such as France, the holders, going out early because their players still had their club seasons “in their legs.” Even four weeks is really still not enough, but it is a great step forward and the quality of the football will be all the better for it. I see the eight first round groups as more or less equal, with one or two exceptions. On paper, it is clear which teams should qualify for the knock-out stages, but there are always some surprises.
In Group A, the pressure of their own fans’ expectation will not worry the Germans. Jurgen Klinsmann knows all about World Cup pressures personally and will have prepared his squad psychologically. I like their mix of young players like Lukas Podolski with experienced people like Michael Ballack, and they always rise to the World Cup challenge. In Korea and Japan, not even their own fans expected too much but they still reached the Final. Ecuador can be the surprise in this group, even though it is only their second World Cup finals. They proved they have a lot of talent when they beat Brazil in the qualifiers and I see them finishing above Poland and Costa Rica.
England have landed in a tough section in Group B. Those top two places are between them, Paraguay and Sweden, which is not an easy call. Personally, I believe in Sweden and England, though Paraguay will make it tough because they are very tight in defense. I know my friends from England are worried about whether Wayne Rooney will be fit. But England have plenty of other big-match players such as David Beckham, Frank Lampard and Steven Gerrard. They are not a one-man team.
Group C looks like Argentina and Holland. Ivory Coast can do as well as Senegal in 2002, even though these are their first finals, but, for me, Argentina are serious candidates to win not only the section but also the World Cup itself.
In Group D, I like Mexico. They have made enormous progress since their national team began playing in the Copa America and players like Rafael Marquez in defense are among the best in the world.
As for Group E, the Czech Republic were one of the best-organized teams at the last European Championship and have much the same squad, while Italy are always among the favorites. That makes me sad for the United States. They reached the quarter-finals four years ago and might even have got to the last four. But I am afraid they will have to satisfied with something less this time.
France have a lot to prove in Group G. I am sad Zinedine Zidane will retire after the finals but this could work to their advantage. He does not have anything else to worry about. He can give it everything he has. It was the same for Brazil in 1970. Myself, Gerson, Brito and some of the others had already said that would be our last World Cup. We could go to our limit.
In Group H, Spain should do well because of the quality of their players and their experience. But we always say the same and the generally seem to disappoint us. This time, I understand they will be taking two psychologists with them, so maybe they can make a difference at last.
Brazil, finally, have two equally good players for every position. But being such overwhelming favorites bothers me. We have a bad record as favorites. In 1950 we lost the final to Uruguay in front of our fans, in 1982 we lost in the second round and in 1998 we were badly beaten in the final.
So much of this World Cup’s character and the flow of the games will depend on the referees. FIFA has worked hard to improve refereeing standards and I want to see the officials get tough with players who cheat and dive — right from the very Opening Match. That should set a standard for the entire tournament. Lastly, I want to make an appeal to the fans. The world has so many problems from wars to poverty to natural disasters. But the World Cup should be a party and I hope, wherever we come from, we can all enjoy it together . . . in peace.
(Pelé is a long-time spokesperson for MasterCard, an official sponsor of the 2006 FIFA World Cup Germany. For more information on MasterCard, its ongoing football promotions and how fans can get closer to the game, visit www.mastercard.com .)
