What is a rumor? It is much more than repetition of a lie, for a lie rarely travels very far. A rumor finds legs only because it has the possibility of being true.
No one would have believed a rumor in July 2005 that Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh was about to resign. In July last year he was in full command of his Cabinet, and had the determination of a leader with an agenda, focused around what he believed would be a historic deal with the United States. The process began with an agreement signed by Defense Minister Pranab Mukherjee on June 28 last year, and gathered momentum during Manmohan’s visit to the White House later last year.
Is it irony, or merely poetic justice, that the Indian prime minister’s political credibility began to waver after President George Bush’s pseudo-historical visit to New Delhi, and his announcement that Washington was ready to go ahead with the nuclear deal.
Manmohan had a significant lapse of judgment when he dismissed opposition to the Bush visit as “communal”. The government was up against something far more potent than communalism: Nationalism.
Suspicion became a worry when the terms of engagement were revealed. Dr. Homi Sethna, former chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission and a founding father of India’s nuclear program, read the details and said that what Manmohan was about to sign was worse than joining the NPT regime. No government in Delhi of any color ever dared to compromise India’s independent nuclear assets by joining the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) regime. We are now on the verge of surrendering our independence, and all we can hear is the sound of silence. Dr A. Gopalakrishnan, former chairman of the Atomic Energy Regulatory Board, notes that if the deal goes through in its present form, it will “compromise the sovereignty of this country for decades to come”. He has exposed the very enormous financial price that India will have to pay as well: between 300,000 to 400,000 crore rupees in nuclear reactors that will be totally dependent for their existence on a yearly audit of our policies by the US Congress. Dr P.K. Iyengar, another former chairman of the AEC, has called the deal “giving up sovereignty”. These men have do not have a political or personal agenda.
It is in the nature of coalition politics that the first people to exploit weakness or uncertainty at the center are partners and allies: The opposition, depressed and moribund, wakes up much later, if it wakes up at all. It is axiomatic that a politician will, at some point in his term of power, give priority to the politics of re-election over the demands of governance. This is accepted, and even acceptable toward the end of a term of power. But if there is the slightest doubt about how long a prime minister will stay in office, politicians will grab any chance to appease their constituencies instead of appeasing the prime minister.
Democratic politics is a terribly uncertain game at the best of times, and only the very complacent waste opportunities. Arjun Singh sent off the first powerful signal that the time for political expediency had arrived. He brought reservations back to the forefront of debate, for in conflict lay votes. It was known that the prime minister was unhappy, but his unhappiness made no difference. If a prime minister cannot assert his authority, authority simply latches on to anyone who will. Dr. Ramadoss, nationally unknown but influential Tamil leader, who leads a small party of just six MPs, has bull-charged his way into center space by converting his regional needs into a national dilemma. The prime minister cannot restrain his “Backward castes” activism, since the only way to do so is to either sack him or change his portfolio. Manmohan can do neither.
The senior party from Tamil Nadu, the DMK, is happy to go for the jugular on behalf of the workers of Neyveli, and once again the prime minister is helpless. In a fit of pique, Manmohan responds by halting all disinvestments across the country. The trouble is, this hammer will not kill the fly.
Two years ago, when the world was young and every horizon just a footfall away, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh promised reform with a human face, a curious phrase, but one whose meaning was nevertheless clearer than its grammar. It meant that economic reforms would not be pushed through at the cost of the working class or the peasant. That policy has now been stood on its head. If this were by the collective will of the government, it would be understandable. But both the prime minister and the finance minister have become hostage to office, and the allies know it.
There is a perceptible sense of drift alternating with freeze, as the axle of power is challenged by the spokes: The wheel cannot turn in a predetermined direction. Manmohan has made the nuclear deal with the United States his highest priority. There is something sincere about this, but sincerity is no substitute for being right. As details have begun to emerge, there is unease in the highest quarters of the Congress as well, because, if eminent Indians like Sethna, Gopalakrishnan and Iyengar are right, the Congress will pay a very heavy political price.
It was the accumulation of such internal tensions that gave wing to the rumor on Friday. The rumor was not total speculation, or the idea without precedent. It is not widely known that Manmohan once sent his resignation to P.V. Narasimha Rao. Rao ignored it. But this time Manmohan is the prime minister. Have you ever seen straws floating in the wind? They are like rumors: No one knows where they come from and where they are headed. But they do predict a storm.
