The desire of the outside world to help Lebanon back onto its economic and political feet with $7.6 billion in financial aid as agreed at the Lebanon aid conference in Paris contrasts starkly with what is happening on the ground in the country. The political crisis resulting from attempts by Hezbollah and its allies to bring down the government by force if necessary and the resulting street violence that has left several people dead in recent days have raised fears that there are elements in Lebanon who are prepared to pitch the country back into civil war in pursuit of their narrow political aims. The student clashes on Thursday which started at Beirut’s Arab University between Sunni supporters and Shiite opponents of the government and which then spread onto the streets are particularly disturbing. They suggest that the crisis may be doing precisely what was feared, moving from a political struggle between the government and Hezbollah into a communal one specifically between Sunnis and Shiites. Not surprisingly then, there are voices which question not the generosity of those who made pledges in Paris (the most generous country being Saudi Arabia with an offer of $1.1 billion) but the timing. Their suggestion is that this could be wasted money if given now.
It could — but that is a risk that has to be taken.
Lebanon’s political problems are in large part economic, both because of the devastation wrought by the Israelis during this summer’s war — in the many parts of the country it is going to be a cold winter for those waiting for their ruined home to be rebuilt — but also because the economic deprivation that fueled communal resentments back in the 1970s and then exploded into civil war is still there, particularly in Shiite areas. Give Lebanon’s poor — all its poor — a hope of a better life and there is a real chance that political differences can be smoothed over. Conversely, to do nothing at this juncture while the country stares recession in the face, to let its economic wounds fester, will be to ensure that the present crisis worsens, possibly even tips over into the full-scale civil war that some fear. Of that there can be no doubt.
Such an outcome has to be avoided at all costs. And as far as offers go, $7.6 billion is far from “all costs”. It is miniscule compared to what has been spent and wasted in Iraq. Much, much more should, and could, have been offered. Lebanon is $41 billion in debt, and that is even before counting the costs of reconstructing all the schools, homes, hospitals, bridges, roads and other infrastructure that Lebanon requires, not to mention all the businesses and the tourist industry that have to be rebuilt so that people can have jobs again and a renewed stake in the country.
However, if the critics are wrong in questioning the timing of aid, there is one aspect of the Paris conference that is of concern. Prime Minister Siniora has had to agree to implement financial reforms. They will not be popular. The government is fragile as it is. It would be a tragedy if the reforms further erode support for it and bring about its collapse.
