The visit of German Chancellor Angela Merkel to the Middle East and in particular to three member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) — Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait — comes at an opportune moment. Germany currently holds both the presidency of the European Union and G-8. Thus, its input to the international policy debates is of high value. Since many of these concerns are in the Middle East, her trip assumes greater significance.
Since December 2006, Chancellor Merkel has held talks with Egyptian President Mubarak, Israeli Prime Minister Olmert, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Jordan’s King Abdallah. On her return from her recent visit to the region, Foreign Minister Steinmeier has visited the region no less than five times since the war in Lebanon last year. All this indicates increased German political engagement in the Middle East.
Of course, Germany continues to have strong economic interests in the region. With the GCC states offering tremendous potential for business and investment, Germany’s volume of trade with the region has topped the 13 billion euro mark, doubling since 2000. At the same time, Germany’s broader commitment on the ground in the greater Middle East has steadily grown in recent years and represents the main factor for the current political engagement.
In Afghanistan, 2,900 German troops are part of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) since 2003. As part of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, German naval units deployed off the Lebanese coast and took command from Maritime Task Force from Italy in October 2006 to help secure the Lebanese coastline. Furthermore, during the Lebanese reconstruction conference held in Paris on Jan. 25, Germany raised its pledges for 2006 and 2007 by 30 million euro, totaling 103 million euro as part of the overall EU commitment of 500 million euro.
Overall, Germany’s engagement has to be welcomed, in particular because this also includes the greater involvement of the European Union. In the past few years, there has been increasing recognition that events in the Gulf — from Iraq and its broader implications, to Iran and its nuclear program, to terrorism and the need to find a common front, and to energy security where the Gulf plays the pivotal role — are having an impact beyond the region proper.
In light of the above factors, the chancellor’s visit contains a second important variable too. The Gulf currently finds itself in a desperate situation where the volatile security environment could implode any moment.
This, in particular, includes the possibility of another conflict situation between the US and Iran at a time when Iraq shows no signs of calming down.
What can Germany and the EU concretely provide the region? There are three distinct suggestions.
First, improve its public diplomacy in the region where people remain far too uninformed about the EU’s policies and intentions. As far as the GCC states are concerned, Germany brings to the table exactly what the Gulf requires amid its present volatility — an emphasis on multilateralism through the EU and NATO, a focus on long-term stability, and an ability to maintain open lines of communications with all the regional actors — be it GCC states, Iraq, Iran or Yemen.
Second, the EU needs to act as a conduit to key actors in the region. The first is the United States, whose policies are proving catastrophic for the Gulf’s short-, medium- and long-term stability. By injecting its voice into the policy debate, Europe can offer a moderating complement to US policy that will limit the more extreme tendencies of unilateralism.
At the same timeIran should stop living under the illusion that the US failed US strategy in Iraq automatically opens the door for Tehran to uninhibitedly spread its hegemony throughout the region. It does not. Europe should increase the pressure on Iran to come to the negotiating table on its nuclear policy.
Third, the EU should openly support regional GCC initiatives that could impact positively on the broader region. This includes the Saudi-inspired Counter-Terrorism Center to be established in Manama; the proposal for a Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone for the Gulf as a precursor for a broader Middle East Zone; and the full support for the peace plan proposed by King Abdullah to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict as put forward in 2002 and accepted by the Arab summit in Beirut.
— Dr. Christian Koch is the director of International Studies at the Gulf Research Center in Dubai.
