French voters go to the polls tomorrow in the first round of their presidential elections. After 12 years of Jacques Chirac, the talk is not just of change but of revolution, reform and rupture. It is just that, talk. The reality is that France is far from ready for a modern revolution; in fact what it fears most is change. But that does not stop the rhetoric. There are 12 candidates, spanning the full spectrum of public opinion, from the wacky far left to the terrifying far right. Each of them speaks of change — those on the far left shout revolution, those on the right rupture, whilst those in the middle espouse a more tranquil “changement”. Two of the twelve will go through to the second-round of voting on May 6. In true democratic form all of these voices get equal billing. France has very strict rules governing television coverage in a political election: Each candidate gets exactly the same airtime as the other. It makes for entertaining TV viewing.
The far left is fielding no less than five candidates. Between them they account for around 12 percent of the popular vote. They punctuate their speeches with words I had thought deleted from the modern dictionary with the fall of the USSR. Leading the pack with five percent of voting intentions is Olivier Besancenot of the Communist Revolutionary League. This morning as I bought my newspaper, my newsagent leant forward and whispered to me: I think I’m going to vote for the postman. She meant Besancenot, a postman by day, a revolutionary by night. Young, baby-faced, fluent and forceful, it is easy to see why he appeals to those who still hold a torch for the destruction of capitalism. Then there is Marie-George Buffet, the leader of the French Communist Party, though these days she prefers to present herself as the leader of the “popular and anti-liberal left”. Add to that not one but two Trotskyites: Gerard Schivardi of the Workers Party who is campaigning on an anti-EU platform and the now legendary Arlette Laguiller of Workers Struggle who is fighting her fifth presidential election campaign. Last but not least is the most colorful of the pack, Jose Bove with his handlebar moustache and voluble manner. He is fighting on an anti-globalization ticket and is famous in France for his fight against GM farming. As it happens, he will spend a few months in jail once the election campaign is over for his role in the destruction of a GM crop. I find him the most likeable of the five, a man of integrity who speaks up for the dispossessed and the excluded, particularly France’s North African immigrants.
The greens have had a disappointing campaign. Dominique Voynet is polling at barely one percent despite her energetic campaigning. Even Frederic Nilhous of the Hunting, Fishing, Nature and Tradition Party is polling higher. Partly this is because of Nicolas Hulot, a high-profile environmental campaigner whose “ecological pact” has been signed by all the mainstream candidates. Add to that an appropriation of the environmentalist agenda by all the candidates and you can understand why few feel the need to vote specifically green.
Segolene Royal, of the Socialist Party, has had a difficult campaign. After her meteoric rise to win the candidacy of her party she floundered and was dogged by fighting within her own camp. She has the persona of a head mistress talking down to her students. She presents herself as maternal and ready to look after the French populace as if they were her own children. She is increasingly espousing a traditional socialist platform. Many have written her off, but that may be shortsighted. In a run-off with Sarkozy she may appear the more presidential of the two and inspire greater trust. Though she is trailing Sarkozy in the polls, the difference between them is rarely more than a handful of percentage points. When you bear in mind that at least one in three — and one poll out yesterday puts this as high as one in two — claims to be undecided, anything could happen.
The big question mark of this election is Francois Bayrou of the Union for French Democracy. He is pitching himself as the viable alternative. A teacher and farmer, the man with a tractor as he likes to be described, stands for traditional French values. His policies are a little hazy and if he were elected he would form a unity government but his conciliatory tone and no-nonsense, down-to-earth persona has seen him surge in the opinion polls to reach the critical 20 percent mark though his poll ratings have begun to fall in recent weeks. Much of his support is tactical. If he were to reach the second round, he would be likely to beat Sarkozy.
The right is fielding three candidates, each more distasteful than the other. The most repugnant is Philippe De Villiers of the Movement for France whose campaign is overtly Islamophobic. He is currently polling 1.5 percent, insignificant until you calculate that with 44.5 million registered voters this translates into over half a million people. Jean-Marie Le Pen of the National Front is hoping for a repeat of 2002 when he made it into the second round. Most pundits think this is unlikely to happen but he cannot be discounted. He is an impressive orator and an astute politician. I find his views unpalatable but it is undeniable that they have popular appeal. Current polling gives him 14 percent of voting intentions, but this is likely to be an underestimate. Even if he does not make it to the second round, he has done much to put his platform of patriotism, anti-immigration, national identity and protectionism on the election agenda.
The mainstream candidate from the right is also the front-runner in this election. Nicolas Sarkozy, the interior minister, may have started his campaign with a new soft and feelie image but he has since reverted to type. He is clearly fighting to win votes from Le Pen, so much so that he has been labeled “son of le Pen” by some of the other candidates. His stance of being tough on law and order and on clamping down on immigration will be popular with the majority of French people who feel increasingly insecure about their safety and their identity. His economic program is also the most sensible of all the candidates, but all this may come to be meaningless if he creates enough antipathy. This may well be an election where people vote not for the candidate who they wish to see elected but against the candidate they despise. If enough people cannot stomach the idea of Nicolas Sarkozy embodying France — and he has a knack for alienating people; last week he caused much controversy when he proposed that pedophilia was a genetic trait — this will tip the elections in favor of his opponent in the second round. He has also been damaged by a vitriolic book published last week by Azouz Begag, the former minister for equality, who is now supporting Bayrou. Sarkozy may be leading the polls but when so many claim to be undecided this may not be as solid a lead as it appears. He is still the most likely next president of France, but don’t bet on it.
