Because of the alphabetical arrangement, Saudi Arabia sits next to Senegal at the United Nations. It is possible that in the not-too-distant future, however, Saudi Arabia will be sitting next to Scotland. On Thursday, the Scottish National Party, which is committed to Scottish independence, made spectacular gains in elections to the autonomous Scottish Parliament. Its leader, Alex Salmond, speaks of a wind of change blowing through the country.
That would seem to be the case — except that a poll commissioned by the BBC a few days ago showed that many Scots who planned to vote for the nationalists are fundamentally opposed to a breakup of the United Kingdom. The overwhelming majority of Scots said they would vote against independence if there were a referendum on the issue. What this contradiction says is that the swing was not so much a vote in favor of the nationalists but against Labour and the Blair government. Labour took a similar battering in elections the same day for the autonomous Welsh Assembly and local municipalities in England. But there it was the Conservatives and the Welsh Nationalists who benefited. The message is fairly straightforward: if there were a general election in the UK today, Labour would lose.
Iraq certainly does play a part in British disillusionment with Labour, but there is much more to it than that. There is discontent over the state of education and the health service, over crime, over immigration issues, over national identity. Not that these concerns would be enough to ditch Labour given its record in these areas is better than when the Conservatives were booted out ten years ago. The big problem, however, is that the public has lost faith in Labour’s integrity. The slow drip of scandals, cronyism and spin has eroded Labour’s lead. Iraq has merely added to the disillusionment. The fact that Prime Minister Tony Blair will announce the date of his departure in a few days’ time and that Gordon Brown will succeed him in office is not going to save Labour. There was a significant swing against Labour even in Brown’s seat in Tuesday’s election. Brown’s neighboring seat, part of which he used to represent, also switched to the Liberal Democrats.
The reality, however, is that there will be no UK election in the next few days. Labour will stay in office in London (though perhaps not so in Edinburgh) and Brown will have at least two years to work on his image. Perhaps by September 2010 (when the next UK election has to be held) the Iraq occupation will be history, the opposition will be in the doldrums and Brown will have had a charisma transplant. Who knows?
But if these changes do not come to pass, there is a distinct possibility that while the English turn to the Conservatives, the Scots (and the Welsh too) will further embrace the nationalists and, unlike now, their dream of independence as well. In ten years’ time, the Saudi ambassador at the UN might be exchanging pleasantries with his Scottish colleague seated next to him.
