Though it still seems hard to credit, a new Cold War is in the offing. Russian President Vladimir Putin threw down the gauntlet Sunday when he warned that if the United States pressed ahead with its anti-missile missile program, to be sited in Poland and the Czech Republic, Moscow will retarget Europe with its own missiles. His intention is clearly to frighten Europeans into pressing a US suspension of the plan.
Yet his threat would seem more likely to boost support for the US missile system, since this is in reality precisely what it is designed to guard Europe against. Nobody ever took seriously Washington’s nonsense about protecting Europe from nuclear missile assaults from Iran and North Korea. While some European countries may be alarmed at Putin’s announcement, the German, British and the new French government of Nicholas Sarkozy are more likely to see this as a vindication of their support for the anti-missile system.
Putin’s threat comes at a time when Russia is awash with cash thanks to higher oil and gas prices. As a senior KGB officer, Putin endured the humiliating collapse of the old Soviet system under Gorbachev and Yeltsin and the corruption and economic mismanagement of the latter’s years in power. In both his election campaigns, he pledged to restore Russia’s pride and place in the world and now he has the wealth to do it. His calculation is that Russia no longer needs European and North American capital, technology and market expertise but Europe definitely needs Russia, most particularly for its oil and gas. He thus believes he is acting from a position of strength.
The problem is that a new Cold War will be a confrontation that will only deepen and turn Europe once again into an armed camp. European countries will scramble to end their reliance on Russian-supplied energy. The economic links that have grown up over 16 years will wither. Russia is immensely rich in natural resources and technological talent but we live in a globalized economy where even such a significant player as Moscow cannot long afford to go it alone. Nor yet can the rest of the world afford to have Russia outside the system.
Putin may, of course, be indulging in brinksmanship. He has raised the geopolitical stakes so that his successor when his second term runs out next year will have a stronger hand to play. In 2009 the United States will also have a new, probably Democrat president who will have to unpick the lackluster legacy of the Bush administration foreign policy. A US-Russian rapprochement might be achieved at a stroke if the anti-missile shield in Europe were put on hold or abandoned altogether. However, even if this happened, the renewed era of amity between Russia, Europe and America would not be quite the same as it has been in the last two decades. The Russian bear has once more growled dangerously and damaged much of the trust and high hopes it has won. America, by encircling Russia with a missile system, has provided the reason for the growl.
