The creation of an emergency administration after the dissolution of the short-lived national unity government is a singular moment in Palestinian history, certain to define a future that could go either way. Hamas calls the new government illegal and will surely resist it. On the other side of President Mahmoud Abbas’ list of pros and cons is a US announcement that, once the new Cabinet takes over, Washington will lift the financial embargo placed on the Palestinians when they voted Hamas to power 16 months ago. And there is an Israeli carrot being dangled that prospects for peace could be boosted by the creation of a new Palestinian government without Hamas.
Abbas has chosen the enticement of peace — even though it is not Hamas that has been preventing the settlement to a problem that began almost 60 years ago. Abbas has also chosen economic assistance — even though the boycott, which has crippled the Palestinian economy, was unjustified and continued even after Fatah joined Hamas in a coalition in March. In fact, it is not clear yet whether the international funds will reach Gaza, since it was the Hamas victory in legislative elections that led to the embargo.
Still, the end of the unity government is looking more and more like a defeat for the Palestinians. What has been created is a political divide in the Palestinian territories — Hamas in control of Gaza and Fatah ruling the larger West Bank. The two territories are only 45 kilometers apart but now appear infinitely farther as they look poised to function as two separate entities. Rival governments in the West Bank and Gaza would finalize that split in ways not merely geographical. Moreover, efforts to revive peace talks or to lead effectively would be dealt a big blow because Abbas could no longer claim to represent all Palestinians — certainly not the ones who were voted into power — and would lose his credibility as a negotiating partner and a leader. The seismic events in Palestine signal a defeat for Israeli and American policy as well. Ever since Hamas won Palestinian legislative elections in January 2006, President Bush and Olmert have done everything they could in order to isolate Hamas and far less than they might have done to help Fatah and its leader, Abbas. Today, Hamas is that much stronger and Fatah is that much weaker but the Palestinians as a whole are the weakest link in the chain.
Then, of course, there is the problem of legitimacy. Hamas won the parliamentary elections fair and square. The elections which brought Hamas to power have hardly produced peace, stability or good governance. But that does not mean balloting should not have taken place. To throw them out of office — even if it is done supposedly legally and even if the aim were to stop the factional lunacy that killed 100 people in less than a week — is courting disaster. Hamas will not take this strike on its legitimacy lying down. With the pretense of joint government now shattered, the Palestinian power struggle is certain to continue, and even intensify.
