WASHINGTON, 12 August 2007 — “Vote early for Christmas” could become the mantra of the upcoming primary season, following South Carolina’s move last week to bring its Republican primary forward by a fortnight, a decision that may mean the first 2008 votes are cast in mid-December of 2007.
The announcement, by the state’s Republican Party Chairman Katon Dawson in Concord, capital of New Hampshire, the traditional home of the first primary, means that Americans could be inflicted with the earliest starting and most compressed presidential primary campaign in history — a prospect that dismays voters and candidates’ campaign managers alike.
Under the plan, the South Carolina Republican vote will be on Jan. 19, 2008, instead of Feb. 2. “We are here to stand shoulder to shoulder with our friends in New Hampshire to reaffirm the important role that both states play in presidential politics,” Dawson said with New Hampshire officials beside him.
The move, which the Republican National Committee fought in vain to deter, was precipitated by the recent decision of Florida to move its primary forward to Jan. 29 to boost its influence on the nominating process. Florida, the fourth largest electoral prize and the state where the cliffhanger 2000 presidential election was resolved, would thus have become the first southern state to vote, a position jealously guarded by South Carolina.
But Dawson’s move to protect that position could push the first voting, by tradition the caucuses in Iowa, forward to December. New Hampshire law requires that it holds the first primary, which had been expected in
mid-January. That vote could now move up to early January, and affect the date of the Iowa caucuses — which under Iowa law must be held eight days before any other vote.
If New Hampshire acts, as it almost certainly will, the caucuses, now provisionally set for Jan. 14, could be pushed forward to before the Christmas and New Year holidays.
If so, a final nail would be driven into efforts to produce a more measured and sensibly staggered timetable for voting. Instead there will be a stampede of primaries that will probably decide each party’s nominee by early February.
Nearly a dozen other later voting states, including California, the biggest of all, have already moved their primaries or caucuses to Feb. 5. A dozen more are considering such a step, which would create a virtual national primary.
Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina are trying to preserve their disproportionate role in the selection of presidential candidates.
Though Bill Clinton’s second-place finish in New Hampshire in 1992 broke the old rule that no one who failed to win the primary there ever captured the nomination, the three small states have always been important winnowers of the field. Months, often years, of prior campaigning by candidates also make presidential politics a source of revenue and publicity they are loath to give up.
The compressed schedule makes life even more difficult for strategists for the candidates. They must now choose whether to continue pouring money into the smaller states, in the hope of generating momentum that spills into contests immediately afterward — or whether to go for broke in states like California, with the delegates to decide the nomination.
