Since the July war on Lebanon, both Israel and Syria, according to media reports, have been preparing their militaries for war. The assumption within the Israeli defense establishment was that a “miscalculation” — the word for a misstep in the Israeli military lexicon, wrong move or accidental misunderstanding along the occupied Golan Heights — could lead to armed conflict between the two countries.
Syria’s claim that Israel Air Force jets infiltrated its airspace pre-dawn Thursday has the potential of becoming just that — a miscalculation — and depending on Syrian President Bashar’s response, it could very well lead to an all-out war.
Not much is known about the late night flyover and what the Syrians thought about it. Israel, unusually, has no interest in helping them understand what they saw or didn’t see, and most of the information coming out on the incident is from Syrian military and government sources.
Israeli Army is saying that the Syrians cannot say with certainty or prove that there was a plane or another aircraft, and they are also unable to describe the route used by that unidentified object.
It sees what happened as part of Syrian intelligence efforts: The Syrian side spotted something — it doesn’t know exactly what it saw or what it fired at — and then sends an experimental balloon via the media, in order to be able to complete the missing details through the Israeli response.
This is probably why the Israeli Defense Forces’ spokesperson’s Office says, “We do not comment on reports of this nature. Whether the Syrians saw something or did not see something, whether it was an Israeli aircraft or something belonging to another country — there is no reason why Israel should help the Syrians in their interpretation efforts, helping them improve their aerial defense system of course.” The Israeli Army’s response is intended to blur the incident. But in such situations like the ones created this summer between Syria, Israel and Lebanon, even a small spark — or even what seems like a spark — may lead to a big fire.
If the Syrian report is true, as it seems to be according to the comment of the Arab minister in the Israeli government Ghaleb Majadle (who said Friday that “Israel Air Force aircraft regularly enter Syrian airspace”), the question which begs to be asked is what was a formation of four-to-five IAF fighter jets doing over the northern Syrian coastal city of Latakia? There are several possibilities for the Israeli infiltration: First, the Israeli planes were collecting intelligence, possibly connected to Syria’s Scud missile launchers that the Israeli military intelligence believed to be stored in the northern part of the country. “The planes either entered Syrian airspace to take photographs or in error”, Majadle, the minister of science, culture and sports said. If that is the case, then why did they break the sound barrier, as the Syrians reported? If they were Israeli intelligence surveillance aircraft, they probably would have wanted to operate covertly and not out in the open.
There could be several explanations. Israel defense establishment might have been checking out the capabilities of what Israeli military intelligence is speaking about for the last months: Syria’s newly-delivered and Russian-developed anti-aircraft systems.
Whatever it was, the question the Israeli Army’s top brass is asking itself now is: Will the incident lead to war? Following the Lebanon war and the rising tensions with Damascus, Israeli military intelligence’s assessment was that the Israeli forces no longer had the privilege of flying over Syria without risking a harsh military response. Israeli forays, like the one over Bashar’s palace in Latakia following the abduction of Israeli soldier Gilad Schalit in Gaza Strip last June, were now deemed dangerous moves that ran the risk of leading Israel and Syria to war.
What is concerning is the escalation in Syrian rhetoric, particularly the remarks made by the Syrian information minister, who said Thursday that his country would “find the way” to respond to the alleged Israeli infiltration. According to Israeli assessments, Syria is not really interested in an armed conflict with Israel but has — since the war on Lebanon — been preparing for one. Due to a lack of communication between the two countries, the Israeli Army assessment has been that a war could erupt if a diplomatic resolution is not reached beforehand. It is believed in Israel that the infiltration incident claim is part of Syrian effort to warm its front with Israel to be included in the US-sponsored international peace conference planned for November.
