NEW DELHI/MUMBAI, 14 September 2007 — Indian communists threatened yesterday they would pull out of the government if it pursued a nuclear deal with the United States, their most blunt threat in a month-old political crisis that has shaken the coalition.
The comments by Prakash Karat, head of the largest of the four left parties that shore up Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s government, made it more likely that Manmohan’s government would not last its entire five-year term, analysts said.
With Manmohan unlikely to back down over the nuclear deal, he may have to choose between continuing in power as head of a minority government or calling elections before his term ends in May 2009.
“We won’t be there to help this government conclude this agreement,” said Prakash Karat, the chief of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI-M). “That’s final.” The communists, who have 60 MPs in the 545-member lower house of Parliament, had in the past warned the government of “serious consequences” if it went ahead with the deal, without spelling out what those consequences could be.
The pact — seen as a sign of booming economic and strategic ties between the two powerful democracies — allows India to import US nuclear fuel and reactors, despite having tested nuclear weapons and not signing the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
The left says the deal undermines India’s independent foreign policy and draws New Delhi into a strategic alliance with Washington.
In order to get the pact working on the ground, New Delhi needs to conclude India-specific safeguards for its civilian reactors with the International Atomic Energy Agency and also get the backing of the Nuclear Suppliers Group of nations.
Besides, the US Congress also needs to approve it again.
Karat said the government must not go ahead with talks with the IAEA if it wants the communists to continue support.
“Don’t go. Wait for some time. Listen to our objections. Examine these objections. Let Parliament opine on it,” he told a seminar on the deal. “But they have not so far agreed. This is not a normal matter of differences between us. The question is, why this determination to go ahead despite the fact that the main parties on which the government depends on for its majority say no.”
The government and communists have set up a panel meant to resolve differences over the deal, but Karat’s comments show that finding common ground will be extremely difficult.
“Each side is playing its cards in the expectation that the other would not press the matter to the point of an immediate election,” political analyst Pran Chopra said.
But with the left intensifying pressure, the government was unlikely to last its full term, he said.
“I think there will be elections after the budget,” Chopra said. The annual budget is presented to Parliament on Feb. 28.
In another development, three former judges said the deal cannot be implemented unless approved by Parliament.
In a joint statement former Supreme Court judges — Justice V.R. Krishna Iyer and P.B. Saant — and former Bombay High Court Judge Hosbet Suresh said, “The agreement will be binding only when it is ratified by Parliament.
“It is clear that the Indo-US nuclear deal cannot be implemented unless it is made into a law by Parliament,” the joint statement said and added, “It is unfortunate that the government is rushing through this deal even before the US has got its laws, including the Hyde Act 2006, amended to ensure lifetime uninterrupted fuel supplies, under all circumstances for the nuclear reactors we intend to import.
“As it stands, the 123 Agreement of August 2007 does not in any way provide assurances of uninterrupted fuel supply,” the former judges said.
They said Article 253 gives Parliament the power to make laws on treaties with other governments or even on decisions made in international conferences. “It is clear that treaties signed with other countries at international conferences have to be translated into laws,” the judges concluded.
