THE presidents of the two Koreas, North and South, today begin a third day of talks in the North Korean capital. That the reclusive Kim Jong Il would have been welcoming his southern counterpart President Roh Moo-hyun to Pyongyang for this summit would have been unthinkable a little over three months ago when his country tested a short range missile over the Sea of Japan.
But much has changed since then. In July the North began closing nuclear sites as part of a deal brokered in Beijing to dismantle all its nuclear infrastructure by the end of the year. The last time leaders of these two countries (which are still officially at war) met for a summit was seven years ago. At that encounter Seoul agreed to expand its economic aid to its economically-stricken neighbor. There was also a deal to allow families split by the truce line in 1953 at the end of three years of vicious fighting, to get back in touch. In the event, that program of familial reunion has been patchy. The very fact that it has carried on in a desultory fashion has nevertheless kept alive hopes that one day the two Koreas will find a way to reunification.
Little of course is expected from this latest summit. That the talks so far have been described as “frank and candid” implies that words may have been exchanged. Nevertheless, the fact that Kim Jong Il has proposed the meeting be extended for an unscheduled extra day tomorrow does suggest that the two leaders have something to talk about.
Observers believe that the North Korean leadership will be seeking to extract the maximum economic benefit from the wealthy South. In exchange it will offer in effect simply the promise of good behavior. For his part President Roh Moo-hyun will be looking for more substantive concessions that will allow a gradual growth in the ties between the two states. Maybe a formal peace is finally up for grabs. An end to the war would have an immense impact certainly on the South and would enable Seoul to entirely reconfigure its now nervous and watchful stance over its the northern border.
However, whatever comes out of this summit, the important thing about these talks is that they are actually taking place at all. When people are negotiating, there is always the chance of progress. When on the other hand, they are fighting, there is only the distant certainty that one day they will have to start talking.
The North Korean regime is not about to relinquish power. Nor will it willingly loosen its stranglehold on a beggared and regimented population. But as a state it is an economic failure, reliant on the support of China and the generous subventions of the South Koreans. Because of Chinese pressure, Kim Jong Il and his administration know they have to make some compromises, however small. That has opened the door to Seoul and it appears that the South Koreans are only pushing at it very gently. Hawkish noises off from Washington will rightly not be welcomed.
