Like her seven previous trips to the region, many of them coming ahead of the planned US-sponsored international summit aimed at injecting life into the Middle East peace process, expectations for the current visit by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, are low. Whether in her talks with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert yesterday or her meeting today with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, Rice will not be getting what she wants most: a joint Palestinian-Israeli document outlining the principles by which a Palestinian state could eventually be established. The two sides have recently been holding an intensive round of bilateral talks in hopes of hammering out some sort of basis on paper but it is obvious by now that Rice can do no more than encourage the two to keep trying.
The joint document is a key component ahead of the international peace conference. Without it we can expect little in the way of achievement or future progress. But Israeli rejection of being pinned down by specifics — borders, Jewish settlements in the West Bank, Palestinian refugees, Palestinian prisoners, the possible division of Jerusalem, a timeline or deadline — effectively and significantly diminishes both chance for, and hopes of, peace.
The deep divisions between Fatah and Hamas and the diplomatic and economic squeeze on Gaza, two issues which will not be mentioned at the summit, will ironically make its chances at success even less certain. Abbas’ recent meeting with Hamas officials, while it was the first since the group’s takeover of the Gaza Strip in June, did not represent a change in policy. Hamas must give up control of Gaza before any reconciliation talks between the two sides can take place. And Hamas’ plan to hold a two-day conference in Damascus at the same time as the one in Annapolis will highlight its rejection of the upcoming US conference and seriously weaken the Palestinian position in Annapolis.
Rice has not put forward her own ideas on which the Annapolis discussions will focus. America is thus not imposing its own plan — even if it has one — but rather, facilitating an agreement. Not many think the Annapolis conference on its own can achieve a breakthrough. The conditions for peace are not at their best, and time is not on the Bush administration’s side.
There is of course suspicion as to why the Bush administration has suddenly chosen to focus on the issue now, after doing very little — except for siding heavily with the Israelis — in its first seven years. America’s recent engagement could be about trying to win support for its actions in Iraq and also appeasing growing Arab anger with the US. No other party is as capable of making so great a contribution to advancing peace in the region as is Washington, but in the absence of any pressure on Israel, and a genuine determination to grant Palestinians their rights, the impression is that the Americans will not go out of their way to achieve peace. Annapolis is shaping up as no more than a token gesture from Washington.
