RIYADH, 5 November 2007 — World energy consumption is projected to increase by 57 percent from 2004 to 2030, Guy F. Caruso, head of Energy Information Administration, Department of Energy in the US, said in his lecture on “International Energy Outlook” at the headquarters of the International Energy Forum Secretariat here yesterday.
Caruso was addressing the members of the diplomatic corps and representatives of the energy business community at a function chaired by Ambassador Arne Walther, secretary general of the International Energy Forum Secretariat.
Total world energy use rises from 447 quadrillion British thermal units (BTU) in 2004 to 559 quadrillion BTU in 2015 and then to 702 quadrillion BTU in 2030. “ Global energy demand grows despite the relatively high world oil and natural gas prices that are projected to persist into the mid-term outlook.”
Caruso said that the last two years have witnessed a dramatic rise in the oil price.” It will reach $100 per barrel in the coming years,” he predicted.
He said less investments in the oil sector, geopolitical reasons in countries such as Iran , Iraq and Kuwait, and the steady growth in global economy which requires more oil, gas, coal and power are factors that favored the price hike. He emphasized the need for continuing investment to recover oil from well-established oil-producing sources and countries, where he said the most important supplies would continue to originate.
Demand for energy from China and India is coming at a time when structural changes are under way in global oil markets, reinforcing the view among experts that there will be a period of increasingly tight supplies ahead. Fields in many parts of the world, including the North Sea, the United States and Russia, have hit a plateau or are in decline.
The most rapid growth in energy demand from 2004 to 2030 is projected for nations outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (non-OECD nations). Total non-OECD energy demand increases by 95 percent as compared with an increase of 24 percent in OECD energy use. “The robust growth in demand among the non-OECD nations is largely the result of strong projected economic growth.”
He pointed out that the world use of petroleum and other liquids will grow from 83 million barrels oil equivalent per day in 2004 to 97 million barrels per day in 2015 and 118 million barrels per day in 2030. To meet the increment in demand, he added that the total supply in 2030 is projected to be 35 million barrels per day higher than the 2004 level of 83 million barrels per day.
Nuclear power generation in the non-OECD countries is projected to increase by 4.0 percent per year from 2004 to 2030. The largest increase in installed nuclear generating capacity is expected to increase in non-OECD Asia, where annual increases in nuclear capacity average 6.3 percent and account for 68 percent of the total projected increase in nuclear power capacity for the non-OECD region as whole .” Of the 58 gigawatts of additional installed nuclear generating capacity projected for non-OECD Asia between 2004 and 2030, 36 gigawatts is projected for China and 17 gigawatts for India. Russia also is expected to add substantial nuclear generating capacity over the mid-term projection, increasing capacity by 20 gigawatts.
Caruso was nominated to the position of the EIA by President George W. Bush in February 2002. He has held several director positions in the US Department of Energy.
