LONDON, 8 November 2007 — Oil sped above $98 a barrel for the first time yesterday, closing in on the landmark $100 level, driven by a slumping US dollar and worries over a winter fuel supply crunch.
Analysts said it was only a matter of time before oil hit triple digits, with evidence of tightening stocks aiding a nearly eight percent rise over the past two weeks alone.
“We’re going to get $100 before too long,” said Kevin Norrish of Barclays Capital. US crude rose $1.42 by 1124 GMT to $98.12 having earlier hit a record $98.62. London Brent crude also hit a new peak of $95.19, and was later up $1.27 at $94.53.
Since mid-August, oil has soared nearly $30 and gold is at a 28-year high. Record weakness in the US dollar has also helped to fuel oil’s rally, as investors see dollar assets as relatively cheap.
Oil gained momentum yesterday after the US dollar plumbed to new lows against the euro as credit market turmoil kept alive the prospects of another Federal Reserve rate cut.
The surge brings oil within a hair of the inflation-adjusted record peak of $101.70 hit in 1980 when war between OPEC producers Iran and Iraq ignited an oil supply crisis. This time round, demand — fueled by exploding growth in China and a steady increase from the United States — has been a major driver behind a more-than-quadrupling in the oil price since 2002.
Rapid demand growth will see China overtaking the United States as the world’s top energy consumer soon after 2010, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said yesterday. As oil flirts with $100, consumer governments are fretting over their economies and the IEA warned oil could soar to a nominal $159 in 2030 with higher than expected demand growth.
“We are experiencing high oil prices today and if actions are not taken in years to come, we can see a supply crunch which is not good news for anybody and it may end up with very high prices,” IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol said.
For now, however, supply and demand have taken a backseat to the role of financial investors when it comes to setting prices, according to the OPEC.
