NEW DELHI, 16 November 2007 — Narendra Modi is expected to return as Gujarat’s chief minister for the third term as Hindu nationalists are likely to win elections in the riot-scarred western Indian state next month, a survey said yesterday.
Though with a reduced majority, Bharatiya Janata Party remained five percentage points ahead of the Congress in the first week of November.
“His (Modi’s) popularity rating is high and so is the satisfaction level with the government,” according to the survey, which was carried by Indian Express, CNN-IBN, Divya Bhaskar and Center for Study of Developing Studies (CSDS).
The survey is based on questions put to 3,893 respondents representing all sections of the state’s electorate. The report says: “Taking everything into account... the BJP’s share of popular vote stood at 45 percent, compared to 40 percent for the Congress.”
If BJP retains this lead, it is expected to win 100 out of 182 seats, with the Congress taking 76. However, if BJP returns to power, it would be more because of Modi’s political base built in the state by his own performance and not because of the party.
The survey says: “Modi has acquired a larger-than-life image for an average Gujarati voter.” While Modi’s rivals have “shed popularity points,” during the last five years, according to the report: “There is a high level of satisfaction with his performance as the chief minister.” However, the report also points to there being “unease with his (Modi’s) handling of the rebels, disapproval of his dictatorial style of functioning and lack of trust in his sincerity.”
Interestingly, the survey points out that the Gujarat carnage is not proving to be politically expensive for Modi. “An average Gujarati wishes to forget 2002 riots as a bad dream that must not recur,” according to the report.
Gujarat, scene of deadly Hindu-Muslim riots five years ago, votes on Dec. 11 and 16 to elect a new state assembly.
The BJP, which is in the opposition at the national level, is hoping that victory in Gujarat would mark a turning point for its political fortunes
But the party could not be complacent in the run-up to the Gujarat polls as its vote share had come down from the previous election in 2002 when it won 127 seats despite the state witnessing some of India’s worst religious riots earlier that year, it said.
About 2,500 people, mostly Muslims, were feared to have been killed in Gujarat in 2002 and Chief Minister Modi was accused of turning a blind eye while Hindu mobs burned, stabbed and beat Muslims to death.
