The farcical failure Thursday of yet another rebellion in the Philippines led by a group of disaffected military officers should not hide the seriousness of the state in which the country’s politics finds itself. This latest attempt by Sen. Antonio Trillanes — he walked out the court where he was being tried for his 2003 effort to oust President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo and set up his rebellion in a function room of the luxury Manila Peninsula Hotel — was designed to galvanize government opponents to come out on the streets.
That they did not was a consequence of two factors. The first is that the middle class that was decisive in the ouster of Marcos and Joseph Estrada did not want a political convulsion that would undermine slowly growing economic prosperity. Therefore these Pinoys did not, as the plotters hoped, join in a similar tidal wave of mobile text messages that mobilized the massive crowds that saw off Estrada. The second factor is more serious. Filipinos are fed up with politicians and politics. After seven years in power, including an election she was accused of rigging, President Arroyo is deeply unpopular. Her government has failed to implement promised social, welfare and economic reform and is, like all its predecessors, mired in allegations of extensive corruption. Nor is the opposition any more popular. The people are disgusted both with their present leaders and those who would lead them if they could. This includes coup plotters, such as Trillanes, who won elected office while he was still in jail.
Such extensive fatigue with the whole political process is not surprising. Ever since the fall of Marcos, Filipinos have seen high hopes of change dashed underfoot by irresponsible political leaders. Corazon Aquino who succeeded Marcos with a stunning popular mandate, restored democracy. To her successor Fidel Ramos goes the credit of liberalizing the economy. However, they both failed to dismantle the politics of patronage and nepotism that is built in for corruption. When the electorate chose the former soap-opera actor Estrada in 1998 there was once again a real hope that a president who was far from being a member of the ruling elite would finally break the country’s political mold. Estrada did, but only by displaying just how venal and incompetent someone from outside the magic circle of power could also be.
Yet ordinary people persisted in hoping that real change would finally come when Arroyo succeeded the ousted and impeached Estrada. Seven years on and hope is gone, not just for reforms from her but from politicians waiting their chance at power.
It is bad enough that the political system in the Philippines does not work. It is even worse that the man in the street no longer cares. One terrible scenario is that this despair could foster insurrection, with violence far more serious than the comic-book antics of plotters like Trillanes. It is more likely however that the people of this country with so much potential will carry on suffering from the greed and incompetence of their politicians.
