The next 48 hours are likely to be crucial for the people of Lebanon. Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa flies into Beirut with the League’s compromise as an end to the political crisis which has paralyzed the country since Nov.23. The deal Moussa will put to all sides involves the selection of Army Chief of Staff Gen. Michel Suleiman as next head of state. The signs are good. The decision has been welcomed by both the coalition government of Prime Minister Fuad Siniora and the opposition parties, though Hezbollah’s initial reaction was clearly guarded. Only on Friday it was demanding a blocking vote in a new national unity government, a proposition rejected by the Arab League.
It is clear that Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal and his Egyptian counterpart Ahmed Abul Gheit played a key role in brokering the deal, a fact recognized by the public thanks Premier Siniora gave both men after the Cairo talks. The Syrians were persuaded to back Suleiman as the compromise candidate. Approval of the solution also came swiftly from the Iranians. This probably persuaded Hezbollah that it should drop its veto demand. The party’s leadership may still be hoping to obtain some leverage when the details are negotiated. Not least of the issues to be agreed is the constitutional amendment that will permit a serving military commander to assume the presidency. There is also the proposed change that would give the president the deciding vote if the Cabinet is deadlocked.
While in principle having an army chief as head of state carries risks, Lebanon offers exceptional circumstances in which Gen. Suleiman will be elected democratically. Though the army has been involved in politics before, there is no history of coups and the armed forces have a good mix of Muslims, Druze and Christians in their ranks. From an operational point of view, whether Suleiman can discharge the difficult job of president and run the Army on a day-to-day basis is another matter.
In one respect, it is sad that the Arab League had to step in to help Lebanese politicians reach an accord. It would have been far better had they achieved it themselves. But if, as must be hoped, Moussa’s mission is successful, it is right and proper that the League demonstrated its power to find consensus.
The question now is whether the Americans and the French will stand back and let a deal be done. Lebanon’s troubles stem directly from outside interference while Washington and Tehran have conducted a proxy conflict, entirely at the expense of the Lebanese themselves.
However, maybe they finally recognized, as the Arab League made clear, that the stalemate in Lebanon had gone on too long. Inevitably, Western press reports were still talking about the “pro-American” Siniora government and describing Suleiman as being “sympathetic” to the Syrians. The reality, however, should be that the Arab League has given the Lebanese a chance to be pro-themselves for a change.
