WASHINGTON, 10 January 2008 — Sen. Hillary Clinton defied the polls yesterday by sweeping to surprise victory in the Democratic New Hampshire primary.
On the Republican side, Sen. John McCain of Arizona, 71, revived his presidential bid, dealing a setback to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, 60. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, 52, who won the Iowa caucus, finished third in New Hampshire.
McCain won 37 percent of the votes, Romney grabbed 32 percent and Huckabee managed 11 percent. McCain scored big wins among moderates, those either dissatisfied or angry at the current Republican administration.
The success of Clinton and McCain followed their third- and fourth-place finishes in the Iowa caucuses last week.
Judging by the pre-vote polls and prediction markets, the Democratic primary in New Hampshire created one of the most surprising upsets in recent US political history. Overall this year’s primaries are kicking off with two historical firsts: The first African-American and first woman to win a presidential primary.
In New Hampshire, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, 46, was favored in the final pre-election poll of all 12 pollsters who surveyed voters since his surprise victory in Iowa, and was the unanimous favorite among television pundits. The only real question to be resolved appeared to be the size of Obama’s majority. But it turns out that the polls and the pundits were wrong.
Hillary’s two-point victory (39 percent to 37 percent) over Obama in New Hampshire caught almost everyone by surprise. And John Edwards, who beat Hillary in Iowa placed a distant third in New Hampshire with 17 percent, followed by Bill Richardson with five percent and Dennis Kucinich with one percent, according to CNN’s numbers.
Yesterday, media reports — many of the same ones that were predicting an Obama victory — were describing the New York senator’s rebound as a startling political event. The Politico reported the primary’s outcome “made fools of the pollsters, pundits, operatives and even some people in (Hillary’s) own campaign who had predicted her imminent demise.”
AP called it a “startling upset,” one that resurrects Clinton’s “bid for the White House.”
“I come to you with a very, very full heart, and I want especially to thank New Hampshire,” Hillary, who is seeking to become the first woman to be elected president, told exuberant supporters on Tuesday night. “Over the last week, I listened to you, and in the process I found my own voice.”
For his part, Obama indicated his willingness to move forward despite the loss.
“We know the battle ahead will be long,” Obama told supporters on Tuesday night. “But always remember that no matter what obstacles stand in our way, nothing can stand in the way of the power of millions of voices calling for change.”
Hillary may have scored points with voters with a rare display of emotion on the eve of the primary; the episode may have helped free female politicians to show emotion in public without running the risk of appearing weak, the former first lady told Fox News yesterday.
“Maybe I have liberated us to actually let women be human beings in public life,” Hillary said, referring to a common refrain among some American feminists (such as social critic Camille Paglia) that a woman must be hawkish and refrain from emotional expression to counter the female stereotype and win an election. Hillary had been struggling to stop Obama, and brought in new advisers to shore up her campaign team. Just before voting began in New Hampshire, Hillary had little reason to think that she would be laying claim to anything except a moral victory. Her victory fires new life into her campaign and leaves the Democratic Party with the tightest of horse races. A recent USA Today/Gallup poll showed her and Obama neck and neck nationally. It’s now a “real two-person race, with a slight edge to Hillary,” said John Fortier, a political scientist at the neo-conservative American Enterprise Institute in Washington.
